Crude Oil Outlook: Brent Climbs to $64.76 on Iran Export Threats, Down 8% in a Month Amid Tariff Turmoil

Brent and WTI rise over 2% after US hints at halting Iran oil exports; MCX crude faces pressure from tariff war, revised demand outlook, and recession fears.

April 13, 2025: Crude oil prices saw a moderate recovery as Brent crude futures settled at $64.76 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed at $61.50, both up by over 2% on Friday. The gains followed US Energy Secretary Chris Wright’s remarks suggesting a possible end to Iran’s oil exports, heightening geopolitical tensions.

Also Read: China Raises Tariffs on US Goods to 125% Amid Escalating Trade War With Trump Administration

However, the broader trend remains bearish. Brent is down 8% in the last month and 15% year-to-date (YTD) amid growing economic uncertainty due to US President Donald Trump’s tariff hikes, particularly the 145% duty on Chinese imports and Beijing’s retaliatory 125% tariff on US goods.

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🔍 Key Drivers Impacting Oil Prices

• Geopolitics: Iran export restrictions signal potential supply crunch.
• Tariffs: US-China trade war raises fears of reduced global oil demand.
• EIA Forecast Cut: Global oil demand growth trimmed to 900,000 bpd for 2025, down by 400,000 bpd.
• Goldman Sachs Outlook: Brent forecast at $62 by Dec 2025, dropping to $55 by 2026.

Also Read: US Partially Eases Trump Tariffs: Smartphones, Computers, Semiconductors Exempted From Massive Duties

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📉 MCX Crude Technical Outlook

According to Kaynat Chainwala, AVP – Commodity Research at Kotak Securities, WTI’s rebound from Trump’s temporary tariff pause didn’t hold as the China exclusion dampened demand prospects.

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Domestic brokerage Axis Securities offers the following trading strategy:

• Buy Above: ₹5,270
• Stop Loss: ₹5,200
• Targets: ₹5,370 / ₹5,420

Key Technical Levels:

• Support: ₹5,140 / ₹5,080 / ₹5,000
• Resistance: ₹5,270 / ₹5,340 / ₹5,400
• Notable Gap: ₹5,235

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🛢️ Conclusion

While the short-term momentum in crude oil has been supported by Iran-related developments, the longer-term trend remains under pressure from escalating trade conflicts, slowing global demand, and bearish projections by major financial institutions.

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Tags: crude oil outlook, Brent crude price, WTI forecast, MCX crude levels, Iran oil export ban, Trump tariffs, China US trade war, oil demand 2025, Axis Securities crude tip, Goldman Sachs oil prediction