Dalal Street This Week: 8-Things That Changed Overnight: India-US Trade Talks, Q1 Earnings and More

As global cues remain shaky and Gift Nifty hints at a muted open, all eyes are on the July 9 US tariff deadline, Q1 results, and the fate of an interim trade deal between India and the US

July-7, 2025: The Indian stock market is poised for a cautious start to the trading week beginning July 8, as investors juggle multiple global and domestic headwinds. Gift Nifty was trading around the 25,547 mark — a marginal premium over the previous close — indicating a flat to slightly positive opening for benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty 50.

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The broader mood remains wary as market participants await developments in the India-US trade deal, track global cues around Trump’s tariff deadline, and brace for the Q1 earnings season.

Market Recap and Outlook

On Friday, Indian equities rebounded from a two-day losing streak. The Sensex climbed 193.42 points to close at 83,432.89, while the Nifty 50 added 55.70 points to end at 25,461. Despite the recovery, market experts caution against over-optimism.

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1. Asian Markets Turn Risk-Off

Asian markets opened in the red on Monday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.26%, the Topix fell 0.18%, South Korea’s Kospi declined 0.48%, and the Kosdaq was down 0.5%. Weak sentiment prevailed after US officials flagged a delay in implementing Trump’s tariffs, but gave no clarity on terms.

2. US Market Snapshot

With Wall Street shut on Friday for the Independence Day holiday, US futures traded lower. Dow Jones futures were down 0.32%, S&P 500 fell 0.39%, and Nasdaq 100 dipped 0.42%. However, all three major indices had rallied strongly last week, with the Dow up 2.3%.

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3. Gift Nifty Points to Flat Opening

Gift Nifty futures hovered near 25,547 on Monday morning, hinting at a neutral open for Indian markets. The trend mirrors global market cautiousness and growing investor unease ahead of key economic events.

4. India-US Trade Deal: Final Countdown

India has reportedly drawn firm red lines on key sectors like agriculture and dairy in ongoing trade negotiations with the US. The 90-day tariff suspension announced by Donald Trump on April 2 ends on July 9. While an interim pact is possible, no agreement has been finalised yet.

Commerce ministry sources have reiterated that India won’t sign any pact without safeguarding national interest. Any breakthrough this week could lift investor morale across sectors including IT, pharma, and auto components.

5. Trump Tariffs Deferred, Not Cancelled

US President Donald Trump confirmed that tariffs would now be implemented from August 1 instead of July 9 for countries failing to reach agreements. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent clarified this move, which provides a short-term breather to Indian exporters — but uncertainty remains.

6. Crude Oil and Commodities

Crude prices dipped after OPEC surprised markets with an output hike for August. Brent crude fell 1.2% to $67.48 per barrel, and WTI crude dropped 2.03% to $65.64. Falling oil prices could ease inflationary pressures on the Indian economy.

Gold, too, declined 0.3% amid Trump’s optimistic trade remarks, with spot prices at $3,323.71/oz.

7. Dollar Weakness Persists

The US dollar index remained flat at 96.967, still near multi-year lows as investors stay glued to trade-related announcements. With global currencies in flux, any sharp move in the dollar could impact FPI flows and currency markets.

What to Watch This Week

India-US Trade Talks: Will an interim deal be reached before July 9?
Q1FY26 Results: TCS, Tata Elxsi, and DMart to kick off earnings season.
US Fed Minutes: Insights from the June meeting could hint at rate cut timelines.
FPI Activity: Foreign institutional flows continue to be a market mover.
Monsoon Progress: Weather conditions will remain in focus for agriculture-linked sectors.

Conclusion:
With Trump’s tariffs, India-US trade dynamics, and earnings season all peaking in the same week, Indian markets could see elevated volatility. While bulls may draw strength from any trade breakthrough or strong corporate results, caution is key amid geopolitical and macroeconomic noise.

Tags:
Indian stock market, Dalal Street, Gift Nifty, Trump tariffs, India US trade deal, Asian markets, Q1 earnings, TCS results, DMart, monsoon 2025, crude oil prices, FPI flows, Fed minutes, US dollar

News Desk