Better-than-expected June payroll data lifts market sentiment as Fed rate cut hopes fade and Trump’s megabill nears House vote.
New York, July 3, 2025 —Wall Street closed higher on Thursday as a robust U.S. jobs report reassured investors about economic resilience amid trade uncertainties and political flux. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 381 points (0.9%), while the S&P 500 gained 0.8%, hitting a fresh all-time high. The Nasdaq Composite also climbed 1%, continuing its upward streak.
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The rally followed a stronger-than-expected June nonfarm payrolls report, which showed the U.S. added 147,000 jobs, surpassing estimates of 110,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, defying forecasts of a rise to 4.3%.
🔑 Key Highlights:
1. Labor Market Surprises on the Upside
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a solid June jobs print, easing concerns raised by ADP’s earlier report showing a drop in private payrolls. May’s payrolls were also revised upward to 144,000.
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2. Rate Cut Expectations Decline
The positive jobs data spurred a rise in Treasury yields, with traders now assigning a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady at its July meeting, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.
“There’s no way the Fed is cutting in July,” said Jed Ellerbroek, Portfolio Manager at Argent Capital Management. “It’s even unclear if they’ll cut at all this year.”
3. S&P 500 & Nasdaq Hit Record Highs
Optimism surrounding U.S. economic strength helped the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reach new record levels. This upbeat momentum persisted even as market participants brace for tariff uncertainty and fiscal policy shifts.
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4. Trump’s Trade & Tax Agenda In Focus
Markets were buoyed by news of a U.S.-Vietnam trade agreement, as well as progress on Donald Trump’s tax megabill, which passed the Senate and is headed for a final House vote.
Trump’s early-July deadline for his 90-day tariff pause is fast approaching, making the coming days crucial for global trade-sensitive sectors.
5. Trading Schedule Adjustment
Markets closed early on Thursday ahead of the Independence Day holiday, with both NYSE and Nasdaq shutting at 1 p.m. ET. U.S. stock markets will remain closed on Friday, July 4.
6. Weekly Gains Across the Board
- Dow Jones: Up 2.1% for the week
- S&P 500: Up 1.5%
- Nasdaq Composite: Up 1.5%
7. Burford Capital Surges 19%
Shares of Burford Capital, a UK-based litigation finance firm, soared this week after the Senate Parliamentarian struck down a tax provision targeting litigation finance from the reconciliation bill.
8. 36 Stocks Hit 52-Week Highs
A notable 25 companies also hit all-time highs, including:
- Royal Caribbean (highest since IPO in 1993)
- American Express, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Capital One, Oracle, and Nvidia
By contrast, Centene touched a new 52-week low, falling to levels last seen in March 2017.
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US stock market, Dow Jones today, S&P 500 record, June jobs report, Federal Reserve interest rates, Trump megabill, US-Vietnam trade deal, Nasdaq rally, Wall Street update, Treasury yields, Burford Capital, litigation finance, 52-week highs stocks