Gold Hits Another Record Amid Trade War, Weak Dollar, Fed Rate Cut Buzz: This Could be the Next Short Term Target

MCX gold surges over 6.5% weekly to ₹93,940 per 10 gm; experts project near-term target of ₹95,500 and $3,320/oz amid global uncertainty and safe-haven rush.

Gold Price Today | April 12, 2025 — Gold prices surged to an all-time high this week as geopolitical tensions flared between the US and China, the US dollar weakened, and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut gained momentum. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold touched a lifetime high of ₹93,940 per 10 gm, before settling at ₹93,887 — a weekly gain of ₹5,757, or 6.53%, compared to last Friday’s close of ₹88,130.

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In the international market, spot gold climbed to $3,245 per ounce, closing at $3,236.21, reflecting a 6.41% weekly gain. The rally was primarily driven by a sharp drop in the US Dollar Index, which fell below the 100 mark for the first time in two years, finishing at 99.89 on Friday.

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Key Drivers of Gold Rally:

1. Escalating US-China Trade Tensions:
   President Trump’s revised tariff stance — pausing levies on most trading partners but excluding China — has reignited trade war fears. The US has imposed 145% tariffs on select Chinese goods, while China retaliated with tariffs ranging from 84% to 125% on US imports. This uncertainty has pushed investors toward safe-haven assets like gold.
2. US Dollar Weakness:
   The dollar’s decline amid global economic jitters has amplified demand for gold, which becomes cheaper for holders of other currencies when the greenback dips.
3. Federal Reserve Rate Cut Buzz:
   Softer-than-expected US inflation data for March has boosted expectations of a rate cut by the US Fed later this year. A lower interest rate environment supports gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset.
4. Safe-Haven Demand Amid Market Volatility:
   With Wall Street indices tumbling — Nasdaq (-5.40%), S&P 500 (-4.60%), and Dow Jones (-3.82%) — amid tariff anxiety, gold’s appeal as a risk hedge has soared.

Expert Outlook:

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One expert noted that gold has decisively broken the $3,200 barrier and now targets $3,280 to $3,320. Domestically, a climb toward ₹95,000 to ₹95,500 per 10 gm in the near term, possibly touching ₹1,00,000 per 10 gm in the long run is very likely.

Another expert added, “Despite rupee strength, global turmoil and rising hedge demand have kept bullish sentiment intact. Key support now lies between ₹91,000 and ₹89,700.”

Gold Price Outlook:

• Next Resistance (Domestic): ₹94,500–₹95,500 per 10 gm
• Support: ₹91,000–₹89,700 per 10 gm
• Global Target Range: $3,280–$3,320 per ounce
• Support (International): $3,180–$3,150 per ounce

As global uncertainty escalates, market watchers suggest staying alert to central bank moves, geopolitical shifts, and currency volatility — all of which could further fuel gold’s bullish trajectory.

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