Gold Price Outlook: MCX Gold May Drop to ₹94,000 as Ceasefire, Trade Hopes Dent Demand

Easing Israel-Iran tensions and US-China trade optimism reduce safe-haven appetite, pressuring gold prices further

New Delhi, June 29, 2025 – Gold prices slumped for the second straight week as global risk sentiment improved, driven by the Israel-Iran ceasefire and renewed US-China trade progress. Analysts now expect MCX gold rates to drop as low as ₹94,000 per 10 grams, with a bearish bias dominating the near-term outlook.

Also Read: Gold Prices Today in Major Indian Cities: June 29 Update Shows Steady Trends Amid Global Easing

On Friday, MCX gold (August futures) dropped ₹1,563 or 1.61% to close at ₹95,524 per 10 grams, after touching a session low of ₹94,951. The yellow metal lost 3.61% over the week, dragged down by weakening safe-haven demand. Silver (September futures) also fell by ₹1,468 or 1.36% to ₹1,06,429 per kg.

Meanwhile, Comex gold dipped below $3,270 per ounce, marking a 3% weekly decline and reinforcing bearish momentum across global markets.

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🌍 What’s Driving the Gold Slide?

• Geopolitical Risk Eases: A tentative ceasefire between Israel and Iran has held, calming investor nerves.
• Trade Sentiment Improves: US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick hinted that new trade frameworks with China and others are nearing finalization.
• Dollar Weakens: The US dollar index slipped below 97.3 — its lowest since February 2022 — after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish testimony boosted expectations of interest rate cuts.

Also Read: Wall Street Outlook for the Week Ahead: Markets to Eye Jobs Data, Trump’s ‘Big Act’

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📉 Analyst Commentary

“The slide in gold prices comes as geopolitical risks ease and global trade optimism strengthens, dampening safe-haven appetite,” said Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities.

Trivedi predicts continued weakness in gold amid improving global outlook and declining safe-haven demand.

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📅 Key Triggers for Next Week

Gold’s trajectory next week will hinge on key data and events:

• US non-farm payrolls (June)
• ISM Manufacturing & Services PMIs
• US trade figures & ECB Central Bank Forum
• Trump administration’s July 9 tariff deadline

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🪙 Gold Price Outlook: Technical Levels

• Comex Gold:
  • Support: $3,230 – $3,200/oz
  • Resistance: $3,350/oz
• MCX Gold (August Futures):
  • Target: ₹94,800 – ₹94,000 per 10 grams
  • Bias: Bearish
  • Outlook: Momentum remains weak

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🏷️ Tags:

gold price outlook, MCX gold forecast, Israel Iran ceasefire, safe haven demand, US-China trade talks, Comex gold, interest rate cut, dollar index, inflation hedge, bullion market