Gold Price Outlook: Will Yellow Metal Trade Higher Amid Global Trade Tensions?

As trade tensions escalate with Trump’s tariff threat on EU imports, analysts predict a bullish trend for gold prices both globally and domestically.

May 25, 2025: Gold prices in India and the US-based Comex market have jumped as investor worries rose following former US President Donald Trump’s proposal of a 50% tariff on imports from the European Union, starting June 1. Despite this, India’s MCX Gold Futures for the June 2025 contract closed 0.02% lower at ₹96,400 per 10 grams on Friday, marginally down from the previous session.

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This slight dip doesn’t dampen expectations of a bullish June for the precious metal. Commodity experts believe that renewed trade tensions and economic uncertainty are fueling safe-haven demand for gold, historically a refuge during times of geopolitical turmoil.

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Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities, said:

“The uptrend in gold appears poised to continue into June. A break below $3,100/oz looks increasingly unlikely.”

Key market triggers include the looming US credit downgrade, continued Chinese central bank gold purchases, fears of recession, and robust safe-haven demand. Investors are also keeping a close watch on next week’s key US economic data — including consumer confidence figures, Q1 GDP data, and the latest Fed minutes — which could influence market sentiment.

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Colin Shah, Managing Director at Kama Jewelry, highlighted that gold prices were volatile last week due to a weakening US dollar and rising fiscal concerns. Looking ahead, Shah expects:

“International prices to trade in the range of $3,300–3,400/oz, with domestic prices hovering around ₹95,000–96,000/10 gms. Silver prices may stay relatively stable unless there’s a major economic trigger.”

Overall, with safe-haven flows likely to dominate, the yellow metal could continue to shine in the coming weeks.

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Gold prices, MCX gold, Comex gold, safe-haven demand, global trade tensions, Donald Trump tariffs, precious metals, India gold outlook, commodities, market volatility