MCX Gold touched ₹95,935 per 10 grams this week, posting a 25% YTD gain. But is the ₹1,00,000 milestone likely in April or May? Analysts suggest cautious optimism.
April 19, 2025: Gold prices are on a historic upward trend, with MCX Gold June futures hitting a record high of ₹95,935 per 10 grams this week before profit-booking cooled it to ₹95,239. In global markets, COMEX Gold soared past $3,370 per ounce, fueled by mounting geopolitical risks, trade war uncertainty, and anticipated rate cuts by the US Fed.
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The rally has sparked fresh curiosity: Can MCX Gold touch ₹1 lakh per 10 grams in April or May 2025?
💹 Why Are Gold Prices Rising?
Multiple catalysts are driving the current bullish momentum:
- Global trade war tensions, particularly driven by US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies.
- Rate cut expectations by the US Federal Reserve.
- Weakness in the US Dollar, boosting non-yielding gold’s appeal.
- Robust central bank buying, especially from India and China.
- Geopolitical instability, prompting a flight to safe-haven assets.
“Persistent global uncertainty, sticky inflation, and reserve diversification by central banks are supporting gold,” says Renisha Chainani, Head of Research at Augmont.
🔮 Can Gold Hit ₹1 Lakh in April or May?
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According to Anuj Gupta of HDFC Securities:
“Gold may reach ₹97,000 in the near term but is unlikely to touch ₹1 lakh immediately.”
Most experts concur that the ₹1 lakh milestone is more realistic by late 2025 or early 2026, barring any fresh geopolitical or financial shocks.
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“Without a new catalyst, the current uptrend may stall. Much of the bullish narrative is already priced in,” warns Chainani.
📊 Market Summary (as of April 18, 2025)
- MCX Gold (June Futures): ₹95,239 per 10 grams
- Year-to-Date (YTD) Return: +25%
- COMEX Gold: $3,371.90 per troy ounce (peak)
🧠 What Should Investors Do?
Experts advise medium- to long-term optimism, but with tactical caution:
- Book partial profits if gold already forms a large part of your portfolio.
- Accumulate on dips if underexposed, especially ahead of Akshaya Tritiya.
- Diversify with silver or other assets for balanced risk-return.
“A diversified allocation across gold and silver can offer protection and upside in this uncertain macro environment,” says Rishabh Nahar, Fund Manager at Qode Advisors.
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