Despite easing global tensions and softer jewellery demand, strong investment inflows and currency trends could push domestic gold prices to the ₹1,00,000 mark per 10 grams.
New Delhi, July 5:
India’s domestic gold prices are poised for an upward trend in the second half of 2025, potentially breaching the psychologically significant ₹1 lakh per 10 grams mark, according to a fresh report by ICICI Bank Global Markets.
Gold is currently trading between ₹96,500 to ₹98,500 per 10 grams, but the bank forecasts a shift toward the ₹98,500 to ₹100,000 range in the coming months — marking a critical price milestone for Indian investors and bullion traders.
Interestingly, this bullish outlook on domestic gold persists despite global prices softening, driven largely by mild INR depreciation (0.2%) and strong ETF inflows in May. While gold imports dropped from USD 3.1 billion in April to USD 2.5 billion in May, suggesting softer physical demand, investment appetite remains robust.
📊 Investment Demand Drives Momentum
The Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) reported a strong ₹2.92 billion net inflow into gold ETFs in May — a notable rebound after two months of outflows. Globally, SPDR Gold ETF holdings surged from 930 tonnes on June 1 to 948 tonnes by July 1, while speculative net long positions rose by 13,000 lots in the last month.
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🔥 Geopolitics Cools, But Prices Hold
The gold rally saw a brief pause amid improving geopolitical sentiment — notably the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, and ongoing trade negotiations involving the US with countries like India, Japan, and the EU. However, analysts argue that this hasn’t dampened long-term investor sentiment, as gold remains up 28% YTD in 2025.
“The easing in global tensions has capped short-term upside, but the investment-driven momentum and currency factors will likely sustain an upward bias,” the report noted.
🛍️ Jewellery Demand Softens, Investment Gains Prominence
While jewellery demand has weakened due to high prices, investment-related demand has taken the front seat, reflecting a shift in consumer behaviour amidst economic uncertainty and changing inflation expectations.
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🗂️ Tags:
Gold Price Forecast, ICICI Bank Global Markets Report, Gold ₹1 Lakh Prediction, Gold ETF Inflows, Investment Demand Gold, INR Depreciation, Israel Iran Ceasefire, US Trade Talks, Safe Haven Asset, Indian Gold Market