Gold Prices Expected to Surge in H2 2025- Can Cross These Levels: ICICI Report
New Delhi, July 5:
India’s domestic gold prices are poised for an upward trend in the second half of 2025, potentially breaching the psychologically significant ₹1 lakh per 10 grams mark, according to a fresh report by ICICI Bank Global Markets.
Gold is currently trading between ₹96,500 to ₹98,500 per 10 grams, but the bank forecasts a shift toward the ₹98,500 to ₹100,000 range in the coming months — marking a critical price milestone for Indian investors and bullion traders.
Interestingly, this bullish outlook on domestic gold persists despite global prices softening, driven largely by mild INR depreciation (0.2%) and strong ETF inflows in May. While gold imports dropped from USD 3.1 billion in April to USD 2.5 billion in May, suggesting softer physical demand, investment appetite remains robust.
The Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) reported a strong ₹2.92 billion net inflow into gold ETFs in May — a notable rebound after two months of outflows. Globally, SPDR Gold ETF holdings surged from 930 tonnes on June 1 to 948 tonnes by July 1, while speculative net long positions rose by 13,000 lots in the last month.
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The gold rally saw a brief pause amid improving geopolitical sentiment — notably the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, and ongoing trade negotiations involving the US with countries like India, Japan, and the EU. However, analysts argue that this hasn’t dampened long-term investor sentiment, as gold remains up 28% YTD in 2025.
“The easing in global tensions has capped short-term upside, but the investment-driven momentum and currency factors will likely sustain an upward bias,” the report noted.
While jewellery demand has weakened due to high prices, investment-related demand has taken the front seat, reflecting a shift in consumer behaviour amidst economic uncertainty and changing inflation expectations.
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Gold Price Forecast, ICICI Bank Global Markets Report, Gold ₹1 Lakh Prediction, Gold ETF Inflows, Investment Demand Gold, INR Depreciation, Israel Iran Ceasefire, US Trade Talks, Safe Haven Asset, Indian Gold Market
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