Goldman Sachs Ups 2025 Gold Forecast to $3,700, Predicts $4,500 Peak in Extreme Risk Scenario

Gold hits record highs amid US-China trade war, recession fears; central banks ramp up buying as safe-haven demand surges

New Delhi | April 15, 2025 —
Gold prices continue their historic surge in 2025, with Goldman Sachs raising its year-end price target to $3,700 per ounce, citing heightened global uncertainty, US-China trade tensions, and rising recession risks. This marks the investment bank’s third upward revision this year, following a March forecast of $3,300.

Also Read: “Nobody’s Getting Off the Hook”: Trump’s Warning Sparks Fears of New Tariffs on China and Tech Imports

In a more extreme scenario, the bank believes gold could soar to $4,500 per ounce before 2025 ends, if geopolitical and economic instability continues to escalate.

Last week, gold touched an all-time high of $3,245.69/oz, as a perfect storm of rising tariffs, volatility in equity markets, and demand from central banks boosted its safe-haven appeal.

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“We are positioning ourselves to hedge against a possible US recession through gold,” said Goldman analysts, noting the increased inflows into gold ETFs and a sharp rise in physical demand across Asia.

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Why Is Gold Rallying?

Also Read: Apple Shares Surge 7% After Tariff Exemption; iPhone Shipments Rise 10%, Clinch Top Spot Globally

• US-China Trade War:
  • Trump administration raised total tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%.
  • China responded with retaliatory tariffs up to 125%.
  • Although exemptions were granted for electronics, fears of further escalation remain.
• US Economic Fears:
  • Trump’s “reciprocal” tariff plans on global trade partners have spooked investors.
  • The Federal Reserve has adopted a wait-and-watch approach due to policy uncertainty.
  • Recession concerns are mounting.
• Central Bank Buying:
  • Several Asian central banks have increased gold reserves amid fears of dollar volatility.
  • Buying spree continues as confidence in fiat stability weakens.

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Gold Prices Today:

• Spot Gold: $3,223.67/oz (down 0.4% as markets cool after tariff pause)
• US Gold Futures: $3,240.90/oz (down 0.1%)
• Previous Record High: $3,245.28/oz

Gold prices dipped slightly on Monday after Trump temporarily eased tensions by exempting smartphones, computers, and select electronics from fresh tariffs. But analysts warn that the rally is far from over if uncertainties persist.

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