Markets brace for muted opening as escalating Israel-Iran tensions, soaring crude prices, and weak global cues weigh heavily on investor sentiment.
June 23, 2025 | New Delhi – Indian equity markets are poised for a cautious and possibly volatile start to the trading week, as a confluence of geopolitical tensions, oil price surges, and global market weakness overshadow Friday’s brief rally. From Gift Nifty discounts to the intensifying Israel-Iran conflict, here are 7 key triggers that could drive Sensex and Nifty 50 today.
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1. Gift Nifty Signals a Muted Start
Gift Nifty was trading around 24,977 early Monday, nearly 152 points below the Nifty futures’ last close. This signals a soft opening, reflecting investor caution amid global volatility and geopolitical tensions.
2. Middle East Tensions Escalate
The US airstrike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, carried out in coordination with Israel, marks a sharp escalation in the Middle East crisis. Iran has threatened retaliation and is reportedly considering closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical energy trade route that handles 20% of global LNG and oil exports. The global equity markets are reacting sharply to the developments.
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3. Crude Oil Prices Spike
Brent crude surged 2.49% to $78.93/bbl, while WTI jumped 2.56% to $75.73/bbl in early Monday trade. Since June 13, Brent has gained 13%, while WTI is up around 10%. Higher oil prices may fuel inflationary pressures and dent India’s fiscal stability, given its status as a major oil importer.
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4. Asian Markets Tumble
Asian stocks fell sharply Monday:
- Nikkei 225 down 0.58%
- Kospi slipped 1.16%
- Kosdaq plunged nearly 2%
- Topix index dropped 0.48%
- Futures on Hang Seng also signaled a lower open
Global investors are closely watching for Tehran’s next move amid fears of further escalation.
5. Wall Street Wobbles
US equity futures declined as well:
- Dow futures down 109 points (0.3%)
- S&P 500 futures fell 0.3%
- Nasdaq futures slipped 0.4%
While the Dow Jones closed slightly higher on Friday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite logged their third straight day of losses, primarily driven by Middle East concerns and cautious Fed rate cut outlooks.
6. Dollar Edges Up, Gold Steady
The US dollar gained 0.25% against the yen, while the Dollar Index firmed 0.17% as investors looked for safe-haven assets.
- Gold prices were flat at $3,369.63/oz, showing muted movement even amid escalating conflict, possibly due to a stronger dollar.
7. Domestic Resilience May Be Tested
On Friday, Indian markets surged over 1.3%:
- Nifty 50 closed at 25,112.40
- Sensex at 82,408.17
The rally was driven by short covering, optimism over monthly expiry, and a temporary diplomatic pause by President Trump. However, with the US now actively involved in the Iran conflict, markets may turn risk-averse.
Oil Supply Assurance by Indian Govt
Union Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri stated that India’s oil marketing companies have “several weeks” of buffer and have diversified energy import routes. However, prolonged disruption at Hormuz could pressure India’s fuel prices and economic outlook.
Conclusion:
With the Strait of Hormuz situation looming large, and oil prices at their highest levels since January, Indian markets are likely to stay volatile. Investors are advised to stay cautious, monitor geopolitical developments, and expect sector-specific impacts, especially on oil-importing and rate-sensitive segments.
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Indian stock market, Sensex today, Nifty 50 outlook, Israel-Iran war, Gift Nifty, oil prices surge, Strait of Hormuz, RIL, HDFC Bank, crude oil news, Asian markets fall, gold prices, US-Iran tensions