Indian Stock Market Outlook: 8 Key Changes to Watch as Trading Resumes Today

Positive global cues, Gift Nifty gains, easing US-China trade tensions, and Reliance Industries’ earnings are set to guide market sentiment despite India-Pakistan tensions.

April 28, 2025: Mumbai —
The Indian stock market is expected to open on a positive note today, driven by strong global cues, a recovery in Gift Nifty, and signs of easing US-China trade tensions, even as investors remain cautious about ongoing India-Pakistan geopolitical developments.

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Here are eight major factors that changed over the weekend that could impact Sensex and Nifty 50:

1. Asian Markets Rally:
   Asian stocks traded higher early Monday amid hopes for fresh stimulus measures from China and improved US-China relations. Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 0.82%, and South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.32%.
2. Gift Nifty Points to Positive Start:
   Gift Nifty hovered around the 24,232 mark, nearly 93 points above the Nifty futures’ previous close, hinting at a strong start for domestic indices.
3. Wall Street Rebounds:
   US markets closed higher last week, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq posting weekly gains. The Nasdaq surged 1.26%, powered by rallies in Alphabet, Tesla, and Nvidia.
4. US-China Trade Tensions Ease:
   Washington indicated openness to de-escalate its trade war with Beijing, while China exempted certain US imports from tariffs. This diplomatic thaw lifted market sentiments globally.
5. Reliance Industries Q4 Earnings:
   Reliance posted a 2.4% year-on-year increase in net profit to ₹19,407 crore for Q4FY25, with revenue climbing nearly 10% to ₹2,64,573 crore. The company also announced a dividend of ₹5.50 per share.
6. Direct Tax Collections Fall Slightly Short:
   India’s net direct tax collection for FY25 came in just shy of its ₹22.37 lakh crore target, growing 13.57% year-on-year to ₹22.26 lakh crore.
7. Gold Prices Ease:
   Spot gold prices retreated 0.3% to $3,309.31 an ounce amid improved risk sentiment and a stronger US dollar, after hitting a record high of $3,500.05 earlier last week.
8. US Dollar Steady:
   The US Dollar Index remained firm around 99.695, poised for its biggest monthly fall in nearly two and a half years. The euro and Japanese yen held relatively stable against the dollar.

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Backdrop:
Last Friday, the Indian stock market closed in the red amid rising India-Pakistan tensions after the Pahalgam terror attack. However, experts believe India’s long-term economic resilience should limit any major downside.

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Market Watch:
Investors will closely track fresh Q4 earnings, monthly auto sales data, foreign fund flows, and updates on the India-Pakistan situation for short-term cues.

🏷️ Tags:

Indian stock market, Sensex, Nifty 50, Gift Nifty, US-China trade, Pahalgam terror attack, Reliance Industries Q4, Gold prices, Direct tax collections, Asian markets

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