The Sensex and Nifty 50 have surged up to 9% from their April lows, led by financials and boosted by easing US tariffs, strong domestic inflows, and cooling inflation. Is this the start of a long-term rally or a short-lived bounce
April 17, 2025: The Indian stock market has staged a dramatic rebound, with the Sensex jumping over 4,300 points and the Nifty 50 climbing 1,350 points in just four trading sessions. This rally, which has propelled both indices above key technical levels, is being seen as a potential sign of a new bull run.
As of Thursday, April 17, the Sensex hit an intraday high of 78,372, while the Nifty 50 surged above its 200-Day Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of 23,370, closing strong at 23,799.
According to technical analysts, the unfilled opening gaps from April 11 and April 15 could be interpreted as bullish runaway gaps, often observed in the midst of a sustained upward trend.
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🏦 Key Drivers Behind the Market Rally
- Rate Cuts & Inflation Easing
The RBI’s back-to-back repo rate cuts and falling retail inflation—thanks to a drop in vegetable prices—have fueled optimism, especially in financial and consumption-driven sectors. - Strong Buying in Bank Stocks
Major gainers include HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and State Bank of India, all surging on hopes of improving credit growth and easing rates. - FII Inflows Return
Foreign investors have turned net buyers again, bringing in ₹6,065 crore on Tuesday and ₹3,936 crore on Wednesday, reversing their earlier selling trend. - Trump’s Tariff Pause Boosts Exports
A 90-day pause in US tariffs has revived sentiment in chemicals, auto ancillaries, fisheries, and EMS stocks. This has opened a new window of opportunity for India–US trade. - Midcap & Smallcap Rally
Broader markets have outperformed, with Nifty Midcap 100 up 11.45% and Nifty Smallcap 100 up 16% from April 7 lows.
🌐 India in the Global Trade Spotlight
As US–China trade tensions escalate, India is capitalizing on global re-alignments. With India–US bilateral trade exceeding $118 billion in 2023–24, ambitions to expand this to $500 billion by 2030 are gaining pace.
India’s export sector could benefit further from potential reshuffling of supply chains as Trump intensifies tariffs on China, currently pegged at a staggering 245%.
💡 Outlook: Bull Run or Bounce?
While the sentiment is bullish, analysts urge caution:
- Muted Q4 FY25 earnings expectations could limit the upside.
- New US tariffs on key sectors like semiconductors might spark fresh volatility.
- Profit booking may emerge at higher levels as valuations catch up with fundamentals.
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