Indian Stock Market Today: 8 Key Overnight Cues from Gift Nifty to US Inflation That May Impact Sensex, Nifty

Gift Nifty hints at a weak opening; Nasdaq hits record high; US inflation rises 0.3% in June. Here are key global and domestic factors influencing the Indian stock market on July 16, 2025.

Indian Stock Market Outlook | July 16, 2025
Indian equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty 50 are poised for a subdued start on Wednesday, tracking mixed global cues and inflationary concerns in the United States. The Gift Nifty was trading around the 25,174 level, nearly 91 points below the Nifty futures’ previous close, signaling a negative open for Indian markets.

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This comes after a day of gains where the Sensex rose by 317.45 points (0.39%) to close at 82,570.91, and Nifty 50 gained 113.50 points (0.45%) to end at 25,195.80, breaking a four-day losing streak.

8 Key Market Cues to Watch Today:

1. Gift Nifty Trends Negative

Gift Nifty is trading below previous levels, suggesting a gap-down opening for domestic indices.

2. US Markets Mixed, Nasdaq Hits Record

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The Nasdaq Composite ended 0.18% higher at 20,677.80, reaching a record closing high, while the Dow Jones fell by 0.98% and S&P 500 declined 0.40%.

3. Rising US Inflation

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June CPI rose 0.3%, the highest monthly gain in 5 months, with YoY inflation at 2.7%, up from 2.4% in May—dimming hopes for early Fed rate cuts.

4. Asian Markets Trade Lower

Japan’s Nikkei 225 dipped 0.2%, Topix dropped 0.11%, Kospi fell 0.8%, and Kosdaq declined 0.56%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng indicated a stronger start.

5. Dollar Strengthens Post-Inflation

The US Dollar Index neared a one-month high at 98.60, while the yen slid to a 4-month low of 149.03. The euro and sterling remained weak near 3-week lows.

6. US Treasury Yields Surge

The 10-year yield hit a one-month high of 4.4950%, while the 2-year yield held steady at 3.9503%, indicating ongoing rate fears.

7. Gold Prices Climb on Safe-Haven Demand

Spot gold rose 0.3% to $3,330.99/oz, buoyed by global trade war concerns. US gold futures remained flat at $3,337.70/oz.

8. Crude Oil Rebounds

Brent crude gained 0.38% to $68.97, and WTI crude rose 0.54% to $66.88 on expectations of stable demand from the US and China.

Expert View:

Siddhartha Khemka of Motilal Oswal Financial Services remarked, “With India’s Commerce Ministry team in Washington for trade talks and Q1FY26 earnings in focus, the market may remain range-bound with stock-specific action.”

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