Weak Gift Nifty, global tariff jitters, easing inflation, and US-India trade optimism among major cues shaping market sentiment
Mumbai, April 16, 2025 – Indian stock markets are likely to start on a weak note today, tracking global market concerns over trade tensions and cautious investor sentiment. The Gift Nifty was trading around 23,273, indicating a 68-point discount over Nifty Futures’ previous close.
Despite Tuesday’s robust rally where the Sensex surged 1,577 points and the Nifty jumped 500 points, global cues and inflation updates suggest a mixed opening for today’s trade.
Here are 8 key overnight developments shaping today’s market action:
1. Gift Nifty Signals Weak Start
Gift Nifty is down nearly 68 points, suggesting a lower opening for domestic indices.
2. Global Market Weakness
Asian equities opened lower ahead of key Chinese GDP data.
- Nikkei 225 fell 0.3%
- Kospi dropped 0.2%
- Hang Seng futures signaled a soft open.
Wall Street ended in the red amid tariff uncertainties, with the Dow falling 155 points and Nvidia plunging over 6% in after-hours trading.
3. India-US Trade Talks Progress
India signed the Terms of Reference for the first phase of a bilateral trade deal with the US, targeting $500 billion in trade by 2030. This move boosts investor confidence in long-term economic cooperation between the two nations.
4. CPI Inflation Cools Down
India’s retail inflation eased to 3.34% in March, the lowest since August 2019, down from 3.61% in February. This strengthens hopes for a prolonged pause in rate hikes by the RBI.
5. Trade Deficit Widens
Despite a 0.7% rise in exports in March to $41.97 billion, India’s trade deficit widened to $21.54 billion due to an 11.3% jump in imports, particularly in energy and electronics.
6. Gold Prices Hit Record High
Gold hit a new all-time high of $3,266.65 per ounce, driven by trade war concerns, a weaker dollar, and safe-haven demand.
7. Crude Oil Remains Volatile
Crude prices moved slightly higher amid geopolitical uncertainty.
- Brent crude: $64.77 (+0.15%)
- WTI crude: $61.42 (+0.15%)
8. FIIs Turn Cautious
Despite recent gains, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) remain wary due to global macro concerns and profit booking, affecting liquidity flows in Indian equities.
📈 Outlook
With global headwinds, weak global cues, and inflation cooling, markets may remain range-bound to weak in early trade. However, optimism around India’s trade and macro fundamentals may provide buy-on-dip opportunities.
Tags: Indian stock market, Gift Nifty, Sensex today, Nifty 50 outlook, CPI inflation, India-US trade deal, Asian markets, Wall Street, crude oil prices, gold price today, trade deficit India