Indian Stock Market Weekly Outlook: 11 Key Triggers for Sensex, Nifty Including Q4 Earnings, US-Iran Talks & Gold Surge

Markets brace for a cautious start post-Good Friday as global signals remain mixed. Gift Nifty hints at a negative opening, with key earnings, trade talks, and geopolitical developments in focus.

Indian Stock Market Preview – April 21, 2025

The Indian stock market is expected to open flat to negative on Monday, influenced by a blend of global developments and domestic earnings cues. Gift Nifty was trading near the 23,801 level — almost 50 points below the previous Nifty futures close — signaling a tepid start to the week.

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On Thursday, ahead of the Good Friday holiday, benchmark indices extended their bull run. The Sensex surged 1.96% (1,509 points) to 78,553.20, and the Nifty 50 closed 1.77% higher at 23,851.65. This momentum now faces tests from global uncertainty and fresh Q4 earnings.

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🔑 11 Market Movers to Watch This Week:

1. Gift Nifty Trends
   • Currently trading ~23,801; signals weak start for Nifty.
2. Asian Market Cues
   • Japan’s Nikkei and Topix down over 1%; Korea’s Kospi and Kosdaq slightly positive.
   • Hong Kong and Australia closed for Easter.
3. Wall Street Action
   • Dow down 1.33%, S&P up 0.13%, Nasdaq down 0.13%.
   • Big movers: Eli Lilly (+14%), Apple (+1.4%), Netflix (+2.5%), UnitedHealth (-22%).
4. Q4 Corporate Results
   • Infosys Q4FY25: Profit ₹7,033 Cr (+3.3% QoQ); revenue fell 2%.
   • HDFC Bank: Net profit ₹17,616 Cr (+6.7% YoY); NII ₹32,070 Cr.
   • ICICI Bank: Net profit ₹12,629.58 Cr (+18% YoY); NIM at 4.41%.
5. China’s LPR Status
   • No rate cuts; 1-year LPR at 3.1%, 5-year at 3.6% (unchanged for 6th month).
6. ECB’s Rate Cut
   • Slashed by 25 bps to 2.4%, warning of growth slowdown due to US tariffs.
7. US-Iran Nuclear Talks
   • Progress seen; potential easing of Middle East geopolitical tension.
8. Russia-Ukraine Easter Truce
   • Ceasefire breaches reported despite calls for a 30-day suspension of drone strikes.
9. US Dollar Weakness
   • Dollar Index hits 3-year low (98.623); Euro, Yen, and Sterling climb sharply.
10. Gold Price Surge
    • Spot gold at $3,361.53/oz, US futures at $3,375.90—record highs amid trade fears.
11. Crude Oil Decline
    • Brent down 1.10% to $67.21, WTI slips 1.14% to $63.94 as Iran deal talks ease supply fears.

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📌 Analyst Take:

“With Nifty 50 hovering near its swing high at 23,800, the spotlight now turns to Q4 earnings and global cues. We continue to recommend a ‘buy on dips’ approach focused on rate-sensitive sectors,” – Ajit Mishra, SVP – Research, Religare Broking Ltd.

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