Volatility looms as markets brace for RBI rate decision, Trump-led trade war impact, earnings season kickoff with TCS, key inflation data, and global cues
April 6, 2025: The Indian stock market enters a high-stakes week as investors weigh a mix of domestic and global cues, including the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy, the impact of US President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff regime, and the start of the Q4 earnings season.
Last week saw sharp corrections in both Nifty 50 and Sensex amid a global risk-off sentiment. The Nifty dropped over 600 points, ending at 22,904.40, while the Sensex plunged more than 2,000 points. Concerns were stoked by Trump’s announcement of steep tariffs, including a 27% levy on select Indian exports, reigniting fears of a global trade war and triggering a massive sell-off in global equities.
Key Triggers for the Week Ahead:
1. RBI MPC Meeting – April 9:
The central bank’s first rate decision of FY26 will offer vital clues on the interest rate trajectory. Experts expect a dovish stance, with some predicting a 25 bps rate cut to boost economic growth.
2. Q4 Earnings Begin – TCS on April 10:
TCS will kick off the Q4FY25 earnings season. With expectations of muted IT performance, investor focus will be on management commentary amid weak global discretionary spending.
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3. Macro Data – IIP & CPI Inflation:
IIP and retail inflation data for March are due on April 11. However, the CPI figure may be delayed until April 15, per government communication.
4. FII & DII Flows:
Foreign investors turned net sellers in April after a bullish March, withdrawing over ₹13,000 crore so far. In contrast, domestic institutions infused over ₹5,600 crore. Experts see FIIs remaining cautious until global stability returns.
5. Global Cues – FOMC Minutes, US/China CPI, UK GDP:
A crucial set of global data will guide sentiment:
- US Fed’s FOMC minutes (April 9)
- US & China CPI data (April 10)
- UK GDP (April 11)
All will provide insight into the global inflation and growth outlook.
6. Trump Tariff Fallout:
Trump’s sweeping tariffs have already roiled markets, and more retaliatory measures from trade partners like China are expected. This geopolitical uncertainty may keep global markets volatile throughout the week.
7. Technical View:
Nifty 50 finds immediate support at 22,600; breaching this may see it slide toward 22,100. Resistance is seen at 23,100–23,400. Volatility is expected to remain high with the India VIX showing sharp spikes.
With no IPOs slated and global trade tensions running high, D-Street will watch for RBI commentary, earnings quality, and global inflation data to determine near-term direction.
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