India’s Economy Poised for 6.8–7.2% Growth Next Fiscal

The Economic Survey 2025–26 projects India’s real GDP growth at 6.8–7.2% for 2026–27, revising its medium-term potential growth from 6.5% to 7%. The survey, released ahead of the Union Budget, emphasizes “strategic sobriety and not defensive pessimism” amid global turbulence, signaling a focus on steady growth rather than alarmist or complacent approaches.

Structural Strengths Underline Optimism
Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran highlighted the Indian economy’s robust foundations: contained inflation, supportive agricultural prospects, healthy banks, comfortable liquidity, strong corporate balance sheets, and resilient credit flows. “Policy dynamism and purposeful governance reinforce this backdrop,” he noted. The survey also credits recent reforms—rationalization of GST rates, labor code implementation, higher FDI limits in insurance, and opening nuclear power to foreign players—for strengthening structural growth.

Preparing for Global Uncertainty
While domestic fundamentals remain strong, the survey warns of a turbulent external environment. It outlines three scenarios:

• Scenario I (best-case, 40–45% probability): Steady growth similar to 2025, but increasingly fragile due to trade frictions, financial stress, and geopolitical tensions.
• Scenario II (moderate risk, 40–45% probability): Disorderly multipolar breakdown, forcing countries into sharper trade-offs between autonomy, growth, and stability.
• Scenario III (low probability, 10–20%): Systemic global shock combining financial, technological, and geopolitical crises, potentially exceeding the 2008 financial crisis in impact.
  

The survey underscores that India must focus on building resilience, innovating continuously, and pursuing long-term growth rather than seeking quick fixes for short-term pressures.

Reforms and the Path to Viksit Bharat 2047
The document aligns with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vision of a “reforms express” and highlights institutional capacity building, AI adoption, and competitive cities as key pillars to achieve Viksit Bharat by 2047. It calls for radical changes in policy-making, with political leadership setting direction and bureaucracies efficiently solving problems while absorbing errors without paralysis or permissiveness.

In essence, the Economic Survey presents a cautiously optimistic vision: India’s growth trajectory is strong, but success will depend on strategic policymaking and navigating a volatile global environment.