Investors eye reciprocal tariffs, FII activity, global cues, and auto sales data as the Indian stock market starts the new financial year on a cautious note.
March 31, 2025: New Delhi – The Indian stock market wrapped up FY25 with solid gains, propelled by foreign inflows and domestic growth signals. Now, with FY26 kicking off, investor attention shifts to a new set of market-moving triggers that could shape sentiment in the first week of April.
Top drivers include Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement, foreign institutional investor (FII) activity, March auto sales data, and macro releases both domestic and global.
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During the past week, the Nifty 50 closed at 23,519.30 and the Sensex at 77,414.92, capping off a strong fiscal year where the indices gained over 5%.
“Markets are at a critical juncture, with all major indices holding above crucial moving averages,” said Puneet Singhania of Master Trust Group.
While steady buying from FIIs provided a late boost to FY25, the focus now shifts to tariff policies, earnings updates, and global cues that will dictate trends in early FY26.
🔑 Key Triggers for This Week (April 1 – April 5, 2025):
📌 1. Donald Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs
Trump is set to implement 25% tariffs on imported finished vehicles from April 3. The move is part of broader reciprocal trade policies, and its global impact—particularly on Indian auto exporters—will be closely watched.
📌 2. FII Activity
FIIs turned net buyers in the final week of FY25, infusing ₹17,426 crore, while DIIs added ₹6,797 crore. Whether this momentum continues depends on global developments, including tariffs and US Fed signals.
“FII flows have turned positive as valuations became attractive and macro indicators improved,” noted Dr. VK Vijayakumar of Geojit.
📌 3. Auto Sales & Domestic Macro Data
March auto sales data and HSBC Composite PMI (expected at 58.6) on April 4 will provide insights into consumer demand and economic momentum. Strong data could support bullish sentiment in auto and financial stocks.
📌 4. Global Cues & Fed Speech
A data-heavy global calendar awaits traders, including:
- US JOLTS Job Openings (Apr 1)
- US PMI, Jobless Claims (Apr 3)
- Non-farm Payrolls, Unemployment (Apr 4)
- Fed Chair Powell’s speech (Apr 4)
Also, China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI and the UK Composite PMI will shed light on the health of global economies.
💹 Corporate Action & Primary Market:
No new IPOs are scheduled, but four SME listings will debut. Meanwhile, stocks like United Spirits, Varun Beverages, and DCM Shriram Industries will trade ex-dividend this week.
🔍 Technical Outlook:
Markets are at a breakout point:
- A decisive move above 24,100 on the Nifty 50 could trigger a fresh rally.
- A break below 23,100 may extend the ongoing consolidation.
“Watch for directional cues post-tariff news and PMI data,” said Ajit Mishra, SVP at Religare Broking.
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