Markets Set for Strong Opening: 10 Key Overnight Cues for Indian Stock Market

Nifty likely to open on a positive note amid US inflation relief, Gift Nifty premium, and broad-based buying in previous session; Japan GDP and trade deficit weigh on global sentiment.

May 16, 2025 | India’s stock market is poised for another strong start on Friday, driven by supportive global cues and strong domestic momentum. Gift Nifty was trading around 25,178, showing a premium of nearly 100 points over Nifty futures’ previous close — a sign of bullish sentiment.

On Thursday, the Sensex jumped 1,200 points and the Nifty 50 breached the 25,000 mark, ending at 82,530.74 and 25,062.10 respectively, with broad-based gains across sectors.

Also Read: Donald Trump Claims India Offered ‘Zero Tariffs’ Trade Deal Amid Ceasefire Diplomacy

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10 Key Factors That Changed Overnight for Markets

1. Asian Market Snapshot

Asian indices were mixed in early trade:

• Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.14% after a sharp GDP contraction.
• Topix rose 0.12%.
• Kospi gained 0.33%, but Kosdaq fell 0.2%.
• Hang Seng futures indicated a weak start.

2. Gift Nifty Trends

Gift Nifty hovered around 25,178, up nearly 100 points, indicating a gap-up opening for Indian indices.

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3. Wall Street Performance

US markets ended mixed:

• Dow Jones: +0.65% at 42,322.75
• S&P 500: +0.41% at 5,916.93
• Nasdaq: -0.18% at 19,112.32

Notably, Cisco jumped 5%, while UnitedHealth plunged 11%. Tesla, Apple, Nvidia, Amazon also declined modestly.

4. US Inflation Eases

Also Read: Microsoft To Lay Off 6,000 Employees Globally Amid Cost-Cutting

April Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 0.5% month-over-month, surprising markets that expected a 0.3% rise. It signals relief in wholesale inflation, which could support dovish Fed expectations.

5. US Retail Sales Sluggish

Retail sales rose just 0.1% in April, following a revised 1.7% jump in March. This suggests some cooling in consumer demand.

6. India’s Trade Deficit Widens

India’s April trade deficit widened to $26.42 billion:

• Exports: Up 9.03% YoY to $38.49 billion
• Imports: Up 19.12% YoY to $64.91 billion

This indicates strong domestic demand but could raise current account deficit concerns.

7. India’s Unemployment Rate

India’s April 2025 unemployment rate stood at 5.1% overall:

• Men: 5.2%
• Women: 5.0%
  Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR) was 55.6%, suggesting steady employment conditions.

8. Japan GDP Shrinks Sharply

Japan’s GDP contracted 0.7% (annualised) in Q1, against expectations of 0.2%. This may prompt stimulus measures and affect regional sentiment.

9. Crude Oil Prices Steady

• Brent Crude: $64.52/barrel (-0.02%)
• WTI Crude: $61.66/barrel (+0.06%)
  Prices remained stable amid easing geopolitical tensions and optimism around US-China trade discussions.

10. US Jobless Claims Hold Steady

Initial jobless claims for the week ending May 10 remained unchanged at 229,000, in line with expectations — indicating a still-tight labour market.

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Market Outlook

All signs point to a strong open for Indian equities on Friday, but profit-booking at higher levels and global volatility could cap intraday gains. Watch out for sectoral rotation and possible breakout attempts above Nifty 25,200.

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Tags:

Sensex, Nifty 50, Gift Nifty, Indian Stock Market, Global Market Cues, Japan GDP, US Inflation, Trade Deficit, Unemployment Rate, Crude Oil Prices