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Markets Set for Strong Opening: 10 Key Overnight Cues for Indian Stock Market

Nifty likely to open on a positive note amid US inflation relief, Gift Nifty premium, and broad-based buying in previous session; Japan GDP and trade deficit weigh on global sentiment.

May 16, 2025 | India’s stock market is poised for another strong start on Friday, driven by supportive global cues and strong domestic momentum. Gift Nifty was trading around 25,178, showing a premium of nearly 100 points over Nifty futures’ previous close — a sign of bullish sentiment.

On Thursday, the Sensex jumped 1,200 points and the Nifty 50 breached the 25,000 mark, ending at 82,530.74 and 25,062.10 respectively, with broad-based gains across sectors.

Also Read: Donald Trump Claims India Offered ‘Zero Tariffs’ Trade Deal Amid Ceasefire Diplomacy

10 Key Factors That Changed Overnight for Markets

1. Asian Market Snapshot

Asian indices were mixed in early trade:

Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.14% after a sharp GDP contraction.
Topix rose 0.12%.
Kospi gained 0.33%, but Kosdaq fell 0.2%.
Hang Seng futures indicated a weak start.

2. Gift Nifty Trends

Gift Nifty hovered around 25,178, up nearly 100 points, indicating a gap-up opening for Indian indices.

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3. Wall Street Performance

US markets ended mixed:

Dow Jones: +0.65% at 42,322.75
S&P 500: +0.41% at 5,916.93
Nasdaq: -0.18% at 19,112.32

Notably, Cisco jumped 5%, while UnitedHealth plunged 11%. Tesla, Apple, Nvidia, Amazon also declined modestly.

4. US Inflation Eases

Also Read: Microsoft To Lay Off 6,000 Employees Globally Amid Cost-Cutting

April Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 0.5% month-over-month, surprising markets that expected a 0.3% rise. It signals relief in wholesale inflation, which could support dovish Fed expectations.

5. US Retail Sales Sluggish

Retail sales rose just 0.1% in April, following a revised 1.7% jump in March. This suggests some cooling in consumer demand.

6. India’s Trade Deficit Widens

India’s April trade deficit widened to $26.42 billion:

Exports: Up 9.03% YoY to $38.49 billion
Imports: Up 19.12% YoY to $64.91 billion

This indicates strong domestic demand but could raise current account deficit concerns.

7. India’s Unemployment Rate

India’s April 2025 unemployment rate stood at 5.1% overall:

Men: 5.2%
Women: 5.0%
Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR) was 55.6%, suggesting steady employment conditions.

8. Japan GDP Shrinks Sharply

Japan’s GDP contracted 0.7% (annualised) in Q1, against expectations of 0.2%. This may prompt stimulus measures and affect regional sentiment.

9. Crude Oil Prices Steady

Brent Crude: $64.52/barrel (-0.02%)
WTI Crude: $61.66/barrel (+0.06%)
Prices remained stable amid easing geopolitical tensions and optimism around US-China trade discussions.

10. US Jobless Claims Hold Steady

Initial jobless claims for the week ending May 10 remained unchanged at 229,000, in line with expectations — indicating a still-tight labour market.

Market Outlook

All signs point to a strong open for Indian equities on Friday, but profit-booking at higher levels and global volatility could cap intraday gains. Watch out for sectoral rotation and possible breakout attempts above Nifty 25,200.