After five months of losses, the Nifty 50 has turned positive in 2025, driven by attractive valuations, macroeconomic recovery, and bullish investor sentiment — but is this surge sustainable?
Indian stock market update – March 24, 2025:
The Indian stock market is riding high on optimism as benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty 50 surged over 1% on Monday, continuing their bullish momentum. With this, Nifty 50 has turned positive for calendar year 2025, marking a significant reversal after five months of continuous losses since October 2024.
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The Sensex soared 1,201 points, breaching the 78,000 mark for the first time since February 7. Meanwhile, the Nifty 50 surpassed 23,700, registering gains in six straight sessions. Since its low of 21,964 on March 4, the index has recovered more than 1,745 points, a clear indication of strong investor confidence.
Why is the market rallying?
According to analysts, several key factors are fueling this turnaround:
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- Attractive Valuations: After a steep correction, valuations of many large-cap stocks are now below their 10-year average, prompting value buying.
- Improved Macros: Economic indicators are showing signs of a turnaround. The RBI’s proactive stance on liquidity and higher government spending are expected to drive corporate earnings growth.
- Rate Cut Buzz: Post the US Fed’s dovish stance, markets are pricing in a possible RBI rate cut in April, which would inject additional liquidity and support sentiment.
- FII Return: After months of being net sellers, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have started nibbling back into Indian equities, supported by a stable rupee.
- Positive Global Cues: A softer US dollar, lower crude oil prices, and hopes of easing inflation are creating a favorable global backdrop despite geopolitical tensions.
Technical and Sectoral Outlook
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From a technical standpoint, the Nifty 50 is approaching a key resistance at 23,804. If the index manages to close above this level decisively, a further move toward 24,000 may be on the cards. However, experts like Anshul Jain from Lakshmishree Investment caution against potential profit-booking in the short term.
Elara Capital remains bullish on cyclical sectors — particularly NBFCs, private banks, telecom, aviation, and defense — driven by India’s improving fundamentals and global tailwinds.
Caution Ahead?
While sentiment is buoyant, Bajaj Broking Research urges caution. They note that Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have still offloaded ₹15,000 crore in March. The current rally could be a technical bounce, and upcoming global events — particularly US tariff moves in April — could trigger volatility.
There’s also a possibility of a “double bottom” formation, meaning the index may retest recent lows before a sustainable recovery takes hold.
Bottom Line:
India’s stock market has broken out of its downward spiral, but sustainability depends on macroeconomic resilience, global factors, and investor discipline. While the short-term looks bright, medium-term volatility can’t be ruled out.
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