Oil Prices Dip on Expectations of Another OPEC+ Production Hike

July 5, 2025: On what was otherwise a subdued trading day in global oil markets due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday, oil prices edged slightly lower as investors braced for a possible output increase from OPEC+ in August.

With U.S. trading activity thin amid a record-breaking 72 million Americans traveling for the July 4 holiday, both ICE Brent and WTI futures saw marginal declines. Market attention shifted to OPEC+, which quietly moved its July meeting up by a day to Saturday, hinting at another 411,000 barrels per day (b/d) increase in output.

While the meeting is expected to follow a predictable path, analysts suggest next week’s key driver will be the July 9 tariff deadline, as several Asian countries scramble to renegotiate trade terms with President Trump’s administration.

Key Developments in the Global Oil Landscape

🛢 OPEC+ Meeting Moved Up
The alliance of eight oil-producing nations relaxing production cuts is expected to agree on a modest hike in August, reinforcing expectations of looser supply conditions in the months ahead.

💼 Vitol Submits Late Bid for Citgo
Privately-held trading powerhouse Vitol has placed a last-minute $10 billion-plus offer to acquire Citgo Petroleum, a Venezuela-owned U.S. refiner with 807,000 b/d capacity. The bid is the highest known in the ongoing auction process.

🇮🇳 India Plans Strategic Reserve Expansion
India has launched feasibility studies to more than double its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), focusing on new underground salt caverns in Rajasthan. The expansion would significantly boost India’s energy security.

🌊 Exxon Returns Guyana Acreage
ExxonMobil has relinquished 2,534 km² of the Stabroek Block offshore Guyana after failing to explore or develop the territory. The acreage now returns to the government for potential reallocation.

💰 BlackRock Considers Aramco Exit
As Saudi Arabia deals with a $15.6 billion Q1 budget deficit, BlackRock is reportedly in talks to sell back its stake in Saudi Aramco’s natural gas pipeline network, signaling a potential cash boost for the kingdom.

🇨🇳 China Offers Tax Relief to Teapots
The Shandong provincial government increased fuel tax rebates for struggling independent refiners — known as “teapots” — who have been operating at just 50–55% capacity. Rebates now cover up to 95% of consumption taxes on gasoline and diesel.

🇧🇷 Brazil Pushes for More Oil Auctions
After raking in $180 million in its latest oil concession round, Brazil is preparing a second E&P auction later this year, targeting uncontracted pre-salt areas to bolster public revenue.

🇬🇧 Glencore Weighs Options for UK Refinery
Glencore is in talks with the UK government regarding the future of the Lindsey refinery (113,000 b/d), following the insolvency of operator Prax. Glencore has been the site’s exclusive crude supplier.

🇻🇪 Venezuela’s Exports Lean on China
Despite renewed U.S. sanctions, PDVSA’s oil exports rose slightly to 844,000 b/d in June, with almost 90% of shipments now heading to China. The country remains Venezuela’s largest energy trade partner amid international isolation.

With geopolitical tensions rising and trade negotiations intensifying, next week’s oil market activity could swing dramatically depending on tariff outcomes and post-OPEC+ market reactions.