July 22, 2025: Today, July 22, 2025, fintech behemoth Paytm (One 97 Communications) is set to release its financial results for the first quarter of FY26. Market analysts are very interested in the company and expect its financial performance to improve significantly.
Expected Change in Profitability: Analysts think that Paytm will make more than ₹18.9 crore in profit after tax (PAT) in the first quarter of FY26. This is a big change from the net loss reported in the same quarter last year, which means the company’s finances are in much better shape now. Paytm lost ₹544.6 crore in Q4 FY25 and ₹839.6 crore in Q1 FY25, which gives you an idea of how bad things were. Some brokerages, including Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL), are more cautious and expect a net profit of about ₹2 crore.
Revenue Growth: The company’s revenue from operations is expected to grow by a strong 27% year-on-year (YoY), mostly because its payments and financial services divisions are doing well. According to JM Financial, consolidated revenue for the first quarter of FY26 will be ₹1,910.9 crore, up from ₹1,501 crore the year before. Even while revenue growth is strong over the course of a year, it is predicted to stay flat from one month to the next.
Important Things That Are Making the Change Happen:
Strong Performance in Payments and Financial Services: Growth in these core areas, especially merchant loans, is likely to be a big component of this. Payments services income (not including UPI incentives) is expected to climb by 21% over last year, while financial services and other services may enjoy a 10% sequential gain, thanks to better loan disbursements.
Cost Optimization: Efforts to keep indirect costs in check, such as cutting costs for employees who don’t work in sales, are projected to have a big impact on profitability.
Better Loan Disbursals: Personal loan disbursements may still be slow since unsecured lending has become more strict, but the growth in merchant loans with a smaller share of Default Loss Guarantee (DLG) is a good sign.
Exceptional Loss in Q4 FY25: In the preceding quarter (Q4 FY25), there was a one-time exceptional loss of ₹522 crore, mostly because of higher ESOP (employee equity ownership plan) costs. The bottom line will naturally get better because there won’t be such a big extraordinary charge in Q1 FY26. This quarter, the expenditures of ESOP are likely to be much lower (₹75–100 crore compared to ₹169 crore in Q4 FY25).
Things to Watch and Problems: Even while things look well, there are still some problems. Margins may stay under pressure because the expenses of processing payments are going up (from 49.8% of payments revenue in Q4 FY25 to 55% in Q4 FY26) and the UPI incentives are not working as well. Investors will also be quite interested in comments about UPI monetization, new loan partnerships, and news about regulatory issues.
Stock Performance: The Paytm stock has been doing quite well over the past year, rising an amazing 122%. This upward trend is marked by a steady pattern of higher highs and lower lows, which shows that the trend is likely to continue. Even though the stock has gone up a lot, it is still trading 53% below its initial public offering (IPO) price of ₹2,150.
A lot of people think that the Q1 FY26 numbers, which are coming today, will be a big factor in determining the stock’s short-term trajectory and give us additional information about Paytm’s route to long-term development and profitability.