RBL Bank Share Price Surges 4.3% After Bullish Breakout

Stock hits 6-month high as technical indicators turn bullish; improving asset quality and low P/B ratio attract value investors despite earnings volatility

June 19, 2025: RBL Bank shares rallied 4.28% on June 18, touching ₹228.43, as technical charts indicated a bullish breakout and investor sentiment shifted positively. The stock is now trading at 6-month highs, delivering over 39% returns in the last six months, despite a challenging earnings year.

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With near-term resistance at ₹245, the bank’s price action suggests more upside, provided broader market momentum sustains.

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📊 Technical Setup: Breakout Confirmed, Momentum in Play

• Support Zone: ₹215–₹217
• Entry Range: ₹228–₹230
• Stop-Loss: ₹212
• Targets: ₹235, ₹240, ₹245

Analysts highlight positive cues from MACD, Bollinger Bands, and trend confirmations across weekly/monthly timeframes. While momentum oscillators like KST urge caution, the broader consensus remains optimistic.

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📉 Q4 FY25 Financials: Profit Slips but Core Income Up

• Net Profit: ₹69 crore (down 81% YoY)
• Interest Income: ₹3,476 crore
• Total Income: ₹4,476 crore
• Provisions: ₹785 crore (up sharply YoY)

Despite the bottom-line disappointment, gross NPAs improved to 2.6% and net NPAs to 0.29%, reflecting stronger risk management. Full-year FY25 profit stood at ₹695 crore vs ₹1,168 crore in FY24.

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🏦 Capital and Risk Profile: Solid Cushion, No Dilution Plans

• CET1 Ratio: 14%
• Capital Raise: None planned in FY26

With no equity dilution on the horizon and a robust capital position, the bank is focusing on internal accruals and cost discipline.

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🔄 Leadership Revamp & Market Engagement

June 2025 saw new leadership in retail banking, signaling strategic focus on franchise expansion. Investor and analyst meets point to a transparent approach to rebuilding market confidence.

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📈 Brokerage Views: Mostly Positive With Target Range ₹230–₹250

Research Firm	Date	View	Target Price	Rationale
The Hindu Business Line	June 19	Buy/Accumulate	₹250	Breakout confirmed, strong tech support at ₹215
INDmoney	June 17	Buy	₹235	Uptrend with 20-DEMA backing
Investec	May 26	Buy	₹230	Low credit costs, stable CET1
S&P Global	June 2025	Hold/Buy	₹210.63	Volatile earnings but upside potential

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💸 Valuation Snapshot: Undervalued, But Not Risk-Free

• P/E Ratio: 19.36
• P/B Ratio: 0.93 (below book value)
• Intrinsic Value: Estimated at ₹291.80
• Dividend Yield: 0.63%

RBL trades at a discount to intrinsic value, making it a value bet for risk-tolerant investors.

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🔍 Peer Comparison: Still a Lagging Contender

Bank	1-Year Return	P/E	P/B	Gross NPA	Net NPA
RBL Bank	-13.2%	18.44	0.84	2.6%	0.29%
HDFC Bank	22.5%	Higher	Higher	Lower	Lower
ICICI Bank	26.6%	Higher	Higher	Lower	Lower

While RBL lags in returns, it stands out for deep valuation and improving asset health.

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✅ Investment Takeaway: Accumulate with Caution

RBL Bank’s breakout and improving fundamentals suggest short-term upside potential to ₹250. Long-term re-rating hinges on earnings normalization, credit cost control, and stable leadership.

Ideal for:

• Tactical traders with tight stop-loss strategies
• Long-term investors looking for a second-tier private bank turnaround

Quarterly tracking remains critical. Buy on dips with medium-term conviction.

Tags: RBL Bank, Banking Stocks, Share Market Today, Technical Breakout, Private Banks, Asset Quality, Q4 FY25 Results, NPA, Investment Ideas, Indian Stock Market

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