Sensex, Nifty 50 Likely to Open Lower Amid India-Pakistan Tensions Post Operation Sindoor

Geopolitical uncertainty, weak technical patterns, and negative global cues weigh on investor sentiment; traders advised to stay cautious and adopt level-based strategies.

May 7, 2025: Mumbai – The Indian equity markets are expected to begin on a weak note on Wednesday, May 7, as geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan intensify following India’s military strikes under Operation Sindoor. This, combined with bearish technical indicators and mixed global signals, has dented market sentiment.

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The Gift Nifty was trading around 24,359, nearly 72 points below Tuesday’s Nifty futures close, hinting at a negative opening.

Sensex & Nifty 50 Technical Outlook

The Nifty 50 formed a bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart, reflecting a potential pause or reversal in the ongoing uptrend. It closed at 24,379.60, down 81.55 points, while the Sensex slipped by 155.77 points to end at 80,641.07.

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“As long as Sensex remains below 81,000, sentiment will likely stay weak,” said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities. “Support lies at 80,300–80,000, with resistance near 81,300–81,400.”

Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities pointed to a rising wedge pattern in Nifty — often a precursor to short-term correction — with key support seen at 24,200. A breakdown below this level could trigger a move toward 24,050–24,000, while resistance is expected at 24,530–24,600.

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“Despite short-term weakness, Nifty still trades above major moving averages, keeping the broader trend intact,” added Om Mehra from SAMCO Securities.

Bank Nifty Outlook

Bank Nifty declined 648.10 points (1.18%) to close at 54,271.40, breaching its 9 EMA and previous swing low. The index is now trading below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, pointing to more downside risk.

“The next crucial support lies at 53,400, near the 20-Day SMA, while resistance remains capped at 55,000–56,000,” said Mehra.

Hrishikesh Yedve of Asit C. Mehta Investments advised a ‘sell-on-rise’ approach for Bank Nifty unless it breaks past 56,000 with conviction.

Market Sentiment & Strategy

The India VIX jumped 3.6% to 19, indicating rising volatility. If it crosses 21, analysts warn of a sharper decline in indices. Experts recommend level-based intraday trading and caution against fresh long positions until the market stabilizes.

“Traders should wait for deeper dips before initiating fresh swing positions,” said VLA Ambala, co-founder of Stock Market Today.

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