Stock Market Outlook: Nifty Eyes Gap-Up Start As Gift Nifty, Trump Tariff Buzz, Gold Prices Shift Sentiment

Asian markets open mixed, Gift Nifty signals strong start for Dalal Street; investors brace for US tariff policy, derivatives expiry, and global data cues in FY25’s final week.

Mumbai | March 24, 2025
Indian stock markets are poised for a positive start on Monday, with Gift Nifty trading at 23,500, nearly 120 points higher than Friday’s close, indicating a gap-up opening for Nifty 50.

The bullish undertone follows strong gains on Wall Street, where the Dow Jones posted its biggest weekly rise in two months, and the Sensex-Nifty duo rallied over 4% last week—the best run since February 2021.

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However, global caution persists due to upcoming events like Donald Trump’s proposed reciprocal tariffs (effective April 2) and volatile crude and gold prices. Investors are also watching out for March derivatives expiry and foreign institutional flow patterns as FY25 winds down.

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🌏 Global Cues to Watch:

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📉 Asian Markets: Mixed start—Japan’s Nikkei up 0.28%, while South Korea’s Kospi and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng showed weakness.
🇺🇸 Wall Street: Dow Jones +1.2% weekly; Nasdaq +0.17%. Tesla rose 5.27%, but Nike and FedEx slipped.
🏛 Trump’s Tariffs: Expected to be more selective and less severe; steel/aluminum duties may not double up.
📉 Japan PMI Data: March composite PMI drops to 48.5 (first contraction in 5 months), dragging down sentiment.
🪙 Gold Prices: Hovering above $3,025/oz as traders hedge against tariffs and Fed rate-cut speculation.
🛢 Crude Oil: Brent falls to $72.06/bbl after a strong week; WTI flat at $68.26.

📍 Domestic Snapshot:

Sensex (Friday): +557 pts to 76,905
Nifty 50 (Friday): +159 pts to 23,350
Market Sentiment: Mid & small caps remain attractive post-correction
Key Trigger: F&O expiry, US policy, global macros

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Misha Bhatia