Stock Market Today: 8 Key Triggers That May Dictate Sensex, Nifty on June 19

Muted Wall Street close, Fed rate pause, Israel-Iran tensions and Gift Nifty dip signal cautious start for Indian equities

June 19, 2025: The Indian stock market is likely to open lower on Thursday, June 19, amid mixed global cues, Fed commentary, and escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia. Here are eight key factors that changed overnight and could influence today’s trading session:

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1. Gift Nifty Indicates Weak Start

Gift Nifty was trading around 24,746, about 80 points lower than the Nifty futures’ previous close, suggesting a negative opening for Indian indices.

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2. Muted Close on Wall Street

US markets showed little movement following the Fed’s decision to hold interest rates steady:

• Dow Jones fell 44.14 points (0.10%)
• S&P 500 eased 1.85 points (0.03%)
• Nasdaq rose 25.18 points (0.13%)

Major tech stocks like Nvidia (+0.94%), Tesla (+1.82%), and Apple (+0.48%) saw gains.

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3. Fed Keeps Rates Steady; Hints at Limited Cuts

The US Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%–4.5%, with projections of only 50 bps rate cuts in 2025 and 25 bps in 2026, signaling a longer period of high borrowing costs.

Also Read: Israel Iran War: Has Indian Stock Market Discounted Middle East Tension Or Nifty 50 Hitting 24,000 Still A Possibility?

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4. Israel-Iran Conflict Escalates

Tensions in the Middle East deepened as Israel launched fresh strikes around Tehran, and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei warned the US of “irreparable damage” if it intervenes. Geopolitical uncertainty continues to weigh heavily on market sentiment.

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5. Asian Markets Mixed

Asian equities opened on a cautious note:

• Nikkei 225 fell 0.27%
• Topix declined 0.12%
• Kospi gained 0.76%
• Kosdaq rose 0.37%
• Hang Seng futures suggested a weaker start.

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6. SEBI Board Decisions

SEBI approved key reforms:

• Simplified FPI regulations for government securities
• Founders of startups allowed to retain stock options post-IPO
• State-owned firms can delist without minority shareholder nod in certain cases

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7. US Jobless Claims Drop

Weekly US jobless claims fell by 5,000 to 245,000, in line with expectations, signaling resilience in the American labor market despite higher interest rates.

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8. Crude Oil Prices Ease

Crude oil prices edged lower amid uncertainty over US action in the Iran conflict:

• Brent Crude at $76.40/bbl (-0.39%)
• WTI Crude at $74.86/bbl (-0.37%)

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Market Outlook

The Sensex and Nifty had ended lower on Wednesday for a second consecutive session. Analysts advise a cautious, stock-specific approach, favoring large-caps and strong mid-caps in current volatility.

Tags: Indian Stock Market, Sensex, Nifty 50, Gift Nifty, US Fed, Israel-Iran War, SEBI, Crude Oil Prices, US Jobless Claims

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