June 4, 2025: Swiggy Share Price stock surged 7.3% in intraday trade on Wednesday, June 4, hitting a four-week high of ₹357 apiece. This marks its biggest single-day gain in a month, fueled by investor optimism after global brokerage firm Morgan Stanley initiated coverage on the stock with an ‘Overweight’ rating and a bullish target price of ₹405.
The positive sentiment comes as Morgan Stanley praised Swiggy’s improving performance in food delivery, noting that the company has regained some market share in recent quarters despite a slowdown in the broader food delivery sector. The brokerage projects 15.8% CAGR growth in gross order value (GOV) for Swiggy’s food delivery business between FY25 and FY28, driven by improved execution and operational efficiency.
Quick Commerce: The Bigger Bet
The report also spotlighted Swiggy’s aggressive push in quick commerce (QC). Morgan Stanley expects Swiggy to grow its QC GOV at an impressive 63% CAGR over the same period. The upward revision of the total addressable market (TAM) for India’s QC industry—from $42 billion to $57 billion by 2030—reflects increasing customer adoption. Swiggy is forecasted to maintain a 22% QC market share by FY31E.
Swiggy’s QC segment is expected to break even on contribution margin by 1HFY27, with adjusted EBITDA breakeven projected for 2HFY29—even while incurring over $1.2 billion in cumulative investment losses during the ramp-up.
Stock Valuation and Risks
Morgan Stanley values Swiggy’s food delivery segment at ₹194 per share and its QC segment at ₹197 per share, suggesting that the current market price undervalues the company’s future potential, especially in quick commerce. Combined, this implies a 22% upside from Monday’s closing price.
The brokerage also noted that Swiggy’s strong balance sheet, supported by food delivery profits and treasury income, should sustain its QC expansion without triggering near-term equity dilution.
Challenges Ahead
However, Morgan Stanley did caution about risks. Execution missteps could result in loss of market share in both food delivery and QC. In addition, intense competition in the QC segment could drive losses beyond expectations and necessitate further capital infusion.
Stock Performance Post-IPO
After debuting on November 13 with a 7.7% premium at ₹420, Swiggy’s stock faced sustained selling pressure, hitting an all-time low of ₹297. While May saw a modest 5% recovery, June has already seen a 7% uptick.
At its current level of ₹357, the stock remains 16.7% below its issue price and 10.25% under its IPO debut price, but with a fresh tailwind from the brokerage’s bullish outlook, sentiment appears to be turning.