Macquarie maintains ‘Outperform’ on Trent with ₹7,200 target; brokerage firms optimistic despite grocery concerns and 20% YTD drop
Mumbai, June 19, 2025 – Shares of Trent Ltd, the Tata Group retail arm, slipped 1% to ₹5,693 in early trade on Wednesday, even as global brokerages Macquarie and Morgan Stanley issued optimistic outlooks for the stock. Trent has lost nearly 20% in value year-to-date, yet analysts remain upbeat on its long-term prospects.
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🔍 Macquarie’s Call: Outperform with ₹7,200 Target
Macquarie retained its ‘Outperform’ rating, projecting a 25.5% upside from the previous close of ₹5,735. The brokerage sees Trent achieving 25% annual sales growth over the next decade, driven by:
- Aggressive new store rollouts
- Entry into adjacent retail categories
- Enhanced cost-efficiency programs
However, Macquarie sounded a note of caution over Trent’s Star grocery format, highlighting:
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- Rising competition from quick commerce players like Blinkit, Zepto, and Swiggy Instamart
- A historically weak performance of private label brands in the grocery segment
📈 Morgan Stanley’s View: ‘Overweight’ with Long-Term Growth Confidence
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On June 18, Morgan Stanley reaffirmed its ‘Overweight’ stance, citing:
- Management’s confidence in achieving 10x growth by FY32
- 200 new stores annually as a feasible target, with early profitability
- High-throughput performance in newly launched stores within 12–24 months
💹 Financial Performance: Strong Q4 Showing
- Q4 EBITDA: ₹656 crore (up 37% YoY), beating market expectations of ₹580 crore
- EBITDA Margins: Improved to 16%
- Analysts cite operational strength in Trent’s fashion business and improved supply chain tech investments
📉 Stock Snapshot
- Current Price (10 AM): ₹5,714 (down 0.5% from previous close)
- YTD Performance: Down approx. 20% in 2025 so far
🧭 Investment Outlook
Despite the recent dip, brokerages remain firm in their positive long-term stance. Investors are advised to monitor developments in the grocery vertical and store expansion pace, which are critical to Trent’s re-rating.
Tags: Trent Share Price, Tata Group, Retail Stocks, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Star Bazaar, Quick Commerce, Indian Markets
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