Trent Shares Dip 1% Despite Macquarie’s Bullish Call; Broker Sees 25% Upside Potential

Macquarie maintains ‘Outperform’ on Trent with ₹7,200 target; brokerage firms optimistic despite grocery concerns and 20% YTD drop

Mumbai, June 19, 2025 – Shares of Trent Ltd, the Tata Group retail arm, slipped 1% to ₹5,693 in early trade on Wednesday, even as global brokerages Macquarie and Morgan Stanley issued optimistic outlooks for the stock. Trent has lost nearly 20% in value year-to-date, yet analysts remain upbeat on its long-term prospects.

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🔍 Macquarie’s Call: Outperform with ₹7,200 Target

Macquarie retained its ‘Outperform’ rating, projecting a 25.5% upside from the previous close of ₹5,735. The brokerage sees Trent achieving 25% annual sales growth over the next decade, driven by:

• Aggressive new store rollouts
• Entry into adjacent retail categories
• Enhanced cost-efficiency programs

However, Macquarie sounded a note of caution over Trent’s Star grocery format, highlighting:

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• Rising competition from quick commerce players like Blinkit, Zepto, and Swiggy Instamart
• A historically weak performance of private label brands in the grocery segment

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📈 Morgan Stanley’s View: ‘Overweight’ with Long-Term Growth Confidence

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On June 18, Morgan Stanley reaffirmed its ‘Overweight’ stance, citing:

• Management’s confidence in achieving 10x growth by FY32
• 200 new stores annually as a feasible target, with early profitability
• High-throughput performance in newly launched stores within 12–24 months

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💹 Financial Performance: Strong Q4 Showing

• Q4 EBITDA: ₹656 crore (up 37% YoY), beating market expectations of ₹580 crore
• EBITDA Margins: Improved to 16%
• Analysts cite operational strength in Trent’s fashion business and improved supply chain tech investments

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📉 Stock Snapshot

• Current Price (10 AM): ₹5,714 (down 0.5% from previous close)
• YTD Performance: Down approx. 20% in 2025 so far

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🧭 Investment Outlook

Despite the recent dip, brokerages remain firm in their positive long-term stance. Investors are advised to monitor developments in the grocery vertical and store expansion pace, which are critical to Trent’s re-rating.

Tags: Trent Share Price, Tata Group, Retail Stocks, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Star Bazaar, Quick Commerce, Indian Markets

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