With tariffs on Canadian lumber set to double, supply of key raw material for toilet paper could collapse, reviving fears of pandemic-style shortages.
March 29, 2025: Millions of Americans could soon face a toilet paper shortage as US President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff push threatens to disrupt the supply of a key raw material imported from Canada.
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In a move that may inadvertently stir memories of the early pandemic panic, Trump’s plan to raise duties on Canadian softwood lumber to 27% — and potentially beyond 50% — could cripple the production of toilet paper and paper towels across the United States, Bloomberg has reported.
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At the center of the issue is northern bleached softwood kraft pulp (NBSK), a material extracted from wood chips. Known for its strength, NBSK makes up about 30% of the fiber in US toilet paper and 50% of paper towels. In 2024 alone, the US imported 2 million tons of NBSK from Canada.
“Some mills won’t switch their pulp suppliers. They’ve been using the same Canadian pulp for 30 years,” said Brian McClay, chairman of a global pulp market watchdog.
If tariffs rise above 50%, McClay warns, many Canadian sawmills may shut down — cutting off the flow of residual wood chips, which are not harvested for pulp directly but are a by-product of lumber production. “That’s going to spike costs and reduce output,” he added.
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The Recipe Can’t Change
US manufacturers prefer specific Canadian pulp for its consistent quality, and industry insiders say it’s irreplaceable. Unlike tech where inputs are easily substituted, pulp mills are deeply integrated with their suppliers.
“Americans buy Canadian products not out of charity but because they’re the best fit for their systems,” said Quebec-based executive Frederic Verreault.
Jean-Francois Samray of the Quebec Forest Industry Council echoed the concern:
“Sawmills can’t operate at half-capacity. It’s full tilt or shutdown. And a breakdown in this chain will affect all of North America.”
Could It Happen Again?
The scenario rings eerily familiar: empty shelves, panic-buying, and price surges—much like the toilet paper crisis during the COVID-19 lockdowns.
The White House currently levies a 14% duty on Canadian lumber. The new hike will push that to 27%, and with Trump’s proposed 25% tariff on other Canadian goods, the effective tax could be over 52%.
Trump’s Trade Vision
Trump insists that tariffs will restore American manufacturing, arguing that Canada is not essential for US needs. But his claim ignores the technical dependencies in industries like pulp and paper.
On April 2, a temporary suspension of some tariffs under the US-Canada trade deal expires, and Trump is expected to unveil even more trade restrictions under the guise of “reciprocal” trade.
With fears rising of sawmills going dark and pulp drying up, the softwood showdown may leave Americans reaching for alternatives — again.
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Trump tariffs, Canada-US trade war, toilet paper shortage, pandemic panic, Canadian lumber, softwood pulp, NBSK, Trump news, US manufacturing, US imports, Bloomberg report, US-Canada trade, April 2 tariffs, Trump administration policy