Why are Indian Stock Markets Weak? 10 Overnight Cues that Have Shaped Trade Today

Geopolitical tensions, spiking crude prices, and weak Asian cues point to a gap-down opening for Indian indices on June 13.

Mumbai | June 13, 2025 –
The Indian stock market is bracing for another volatile session on Friday amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with Israel’s preemptive strikes on Iran sending shockwaves across global financial markets. Add to that a surge in crude oil prices and shaky cues from Wall Street and Asia, and the stage is set for a gap-down start to trading.

Also Read: Why Has Crude Oil Soared 13% in One Day? Brent Breaches $78 Per Barrel

Gift Nifty, which reflects early market sentiment, was trading at 24,734, nearly 203 points below Nifty futures’ previous close, indicating bearish sentiment.

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10 Key Market Triggers for June 13, 2025

1. Israel-Iran Conflict Escalates

In a military operation dubbed “Rising Lion”, Israel launched airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and missile sites, declaring a national emergency. Iran responded with threats of missile retaliation. Explosions were reported at Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities, intensifying fears of a full-blown Middle East war.

2. Crude Oil Prices Surge

Crude oil prices spiked to their highest in over two months, with Brent crude rising 7.67% to $74.68 and WTI jumping 8% to $73.48. The threat to the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil flows, has added to supply concerns.

Also Read: Trump Frustrated as Oil Prices Rise Amid Middle East Conflict Concerns

3. Gift Nifty Indicates Weak Start

The Gift Nifty was trading at a significant discount of 203 points from the previous Nifty futures close, signaling a likely gap-down opening for the Indian market.

4. Asian Markets in the Red

Asian equities mirrored global jitters. Nikkei 225 fell 1.28%, Topix dropped 1.22%, Kospi declined 0.83%, and Kosdaq plunged 1.82%. Only Hong Kong futures hinted at a marginally positive start.

5. Wall Street Mixed Amid Crisis

Despite the crisis, US stocks closed higher Thursday led by tech: Nasdaq up 0.24%, S&P 500 rose 0.38%, and Dow up 0.24%. Oracle gained 13.3% while Boeing fell nearly 5%. However, US stock futures turned negative early Friday amid rising tensions.

Also Read: Dollar Hits Three-Year Low Amid Trade Turmoil and Rate Cut Bets

6. US Producer Price Index

Producer inflation came in softer than expected. The PPI rose just 0.1% in May, below forecasts, hinting at cooling inflationary pressures, though it failed to lift broader market sentiment.

7. US Jobless Claims Remain Elevated

Jobless claims remained at 248,000, holding steady week-on-week and above analyst expectations of 240,000, signaling persistent labor market fragility.

8. Indian CPI Inflation Eases Sharply

Back home, India’s retail inflation cooled to 2.82% in May, the lowest in over six years, thanks to easing food prices. This could support RBI’s dovish stance amid external volatility.

9. Safe-Haven Rally Boosts Dollar and Gold

The US Dollar Index jumped 0.4% to 98.07, while gold prices surged 0.8% to $3,412.29 per ounce, as investors rushed to safe havens. Gold futures rose 1.2% and are up 3.1% this week.

10. Domestic Market Recap

On Thursday, Sensex plunged 823 points to 81,691.98 and Nifty 50 lost 253 points to close at 24,888.20, with sharp sell-offs across midcaps and smallcaps. Market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms eroded by nearly ₹6 lakh crore.

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Market Outlook

With global volatility, rising crude prices, and a threat of prolonged geopolitical instability, Indian equities may see continued pressure in the near term. Analysts expect further downside if Nifty breaks below 24,825, its key technical support.

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Indian stock market, Sensex, Nifty 50, Gift Nifty, Israel Iran conflict, crude oil price, Asian markets, Wall Street, inflation, jobless claims, CPI India, gold price