Box Office Watch: ‘Superman’ Tracks for $90M-$125M U.S. Opening

James Gunn’s rebooted Superman, the first major release under DC Studios’ new leadership, is tracking for a $90M-$125M domestic opening—buoyed by strong brand awareness but tempered by middling first-choice metrics.

‘Superman’, the much-anticipated first feature under the new DC Studios regime helmed by James Gunn and Peter Safran, is generating early box office projections in the range of $90 million to $125 million for its U.S. opening weekend. While tracking data from NRG initially floated higher estimates—between $125M and $145M—multiple distribution insiders suggest a more grounded domestic debut figure is likely, setting the stage for a cautiously optimistic start to DC’s rebooted cinematic universe.

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Superman’s Awareness Is Sky-High, But Will It Translate?

One of Superman‘s strongest assets is its unaided awareness score of 30, meaning a large share of polled moviegoers spontaneously mention the film without prompting. That figure outpaces the unaided awareness of ‘Top Gun: Maverick’, which opened at $126.7M—an encouraging sign for Warner Bros.

However, first choice data—the “must-see” category that most closely reflects intent to purchase tickets—isn’t quite as impressive. Superman trails post-COVID era superhero films like ‘Thor: Love and Thunder’ ($144.1M), ‘The Batman’ ($134M), and Gunn’s own ‘Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3’ ($118.4M) at similar pre-release intervals.

More strikingly, Superman is reportedly 71% behind Captain America: Brave New World and 64% behind The Batman in first-choice rankings, raising questions about how broad the film’s opening-weekend appeal may ultimately be.

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Advance Ticket Sales and Amazon Prime Buzz

Despite these concerns, Superman is 2025’s top advance-ticket seller in its first 24 hours, bolstered by Amazon Prime Early Access screenings set for Wednesday, July 8—three days before the official July 11 release. Sales on platforms like Fandango outpaced even Marvel’s upcoming The Fantastic Four: First Steps, signaling a core fanbase eager to turn up early.

This early enthusiasm, however, must be matched with positive reviews and strong word-of-mouth, which are increasingly crucial in the post-pandemic theatrical landscape, where audiences are choosier about what draws them away from their streaming services.

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The Superman Legacy at the Box Office

Over seven major releases—not including Justice League but including 2016’s Batman v. Superman—the Superman franchise has grossed $2.56 billion worldwide. Notable performances include:

• Batman v. Superman (2016):
  • Opening: $166M
  • Domestic: $330.3M
  • Global: $874.3M
• Man of Steel (2013):
  • Opening: $116.6M
  • Domestic: $291M
  • Global: $670M

Both of those films were directed by Zack Snyder, setting a high bar in terms of commercial performance. Whether James Gunn can match or exceed those numbers will depend largely on critical reception and audience sentiment in the opening days.

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Final Push in Promotion

With its teaser dropping just before Christmas 2024, Superman has had a long tail of anticipation. But as with most event films, the bulk of promotional spending (P&A) will occur in the days just before release. Warner Bros. is expected to roll out a high-impact marketing blitz to ensure broad turnout.

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Conclusion

Superman has the brand power and fan anticipation, but its success will ultimately depend on reviews, audience buzz, and whether it resonates beyond core fans. As the launchpad for DC Studios’ new cinematic vision, its performance will have far-reaching implications for the franchise’s future.