This One Film Has Already Locked a Best Picture Nomination at the 2025 Oscars

As June ends, one unexpected movie from the year’s first half has surged ahead in the Oscars race, potentially sweeping multiple major categories.

Today, as we wrap up the first half of 2025, only one film released between January and June has emerged as a surefire Best Picture contender for the 98th Annual Academy Awards — and its rise has taken Hollywood by storm.

Sinners, Ryan Coogler’s electrifying period thriller blending gangster and vampire genres, has seized the 2025 Oscars conversation. As the first half of the year wraps up, the Warner Bros. hit starring Michael B. Jordan is the only film released so far with a 100% guaranteed shot at a Best Picture nomination. While the 98th Annual Academy Awards are still months away (set for March 15), industry experts agree that Sinners is already the front-runner in a year still waiting for most heavy hitters to debut.

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With a Rotten Tomatoes critic score of 97% and a 96% audience rating, Sinners has been a critical and commercial juggernaut, raking in $278 million in the U.S. and $364 million globally. The April 18 release tells the tale of twin brothers returning home from Chicago’s gang wars, only to discover a dark, supernatural secret in their Southern hometown.

What sets Sinners apart isn’t just its originality but its full-spectrum awards potential. Industry buzz projects double-digit Oscar nominations, including Best Picture, Best Actor (Michael B. Jordan), Supporting Actor (Delroy Lindo or Miles Caton), Supporting Actress (Hailee Steinfeld or Wunmi Mosaku), Director and Original Screenplay (Coogler), as well as multiple technical nods like Cinematography, Score, Song (“I Lied To You”), Production Design, Editing, and Makeup & Hairstyling.

This feat is rare for a first-half release. In 2024, only Dune: Part Two (also from Warner Bros.) made a dent at the Oscars from January to June, ultimately winning two trophies. Most early-year films, unless backed by massive campaigns or festival acclaim, fade into awards oblivion.

However, precedent does exist. Everything Everywhere All at Once premiered in March 2022 and swept the Oscars a year later. CODA made a similar journey, streaming its way to Best Picture in 2022 after a low-key August release. Past Lives, Barbie, and Oppenheimer in 2023 further proved that release date is no longer destiny.

Among other contenders from early 2025:

• Eva Victor’s debut Sorry, Baby (A24), winner of the Waldo Salt Screenwriting Award at Sundance, is garnering attention for both its writing and Victor’s lead performance. With Barry Jenkins as producer, this Sundance-Cannes darling is expected to compete in Original Screenplay and Best Actress categories.
• Familiar Touch, from first-time director Sarah Friedland and starring Kathleen Chalfant as a woman battling dementia, may follow the To Leslie grassroots model. Its limited arthouse release and Chalfant’s award-winning Venice performance position it as a dark horse in the Best Actress race.
• Black Bag, Steven Soderbergh’s espionage-laced relationship drama starring Michael Fassbender and Cate Blanchett, is being hailed as his best work in years. If pushed, it could crack into the screenplay and acting races.

Other potential hopefuls include:

• The Life of Chuck (Neon), a Toronto People’s Choice winner.
• The Penguin Lessons (Sony Classics) with Steve Coogan.
• Ballad of Wallis Island (Focus Features).
• The Friend (Bleecker Street), with standout work from Naomi Watts.

Celine Song’s Materialists could earn her another Screenplay nomination following the success of Past Lives, and performances by Dakota Johnson and Pedro Pascal may attract attention—provided A24 can make room in a crowded slate.

Meanwhile, F1, Apple’s summer blockbuster starring Brad Pitt, directed by Joseph Kosinski and produced by Jerry Bruckheimer, might echo Top Gun: Maverick’s Oscar run. While a Best Picture nod is uncertain, expect it to compete strongly in Sound and Editing.

As for now, no other first-half release matches the momentum or critical resonance of Sinners. The rest of the year will undoubtedly unveil new contenders, but the early Oscar crown belongs, undisputedly, to Ryan Coogler’s Sinners.