‘Thunderbolts’ Eyes $70M Opening: Marvel Bets on Antiheroes, Grit, and Indie Vibes to Kick Off Summer 2025

Florence Pugh, Sebastian Stan, and David Harbour lead Marvel’s unconventional team in Thunderbolts, as Disney leans into the film’s “emotional darkness” and offbeat indie tone to launch the summer box office season.

As Marvel’s Thunderbolts prepares to take flight on May’s first weekend, the unconventional superhero flick is tracking for a domestic opening between $63 million and $77 million, with $70 million as the current target — a respectable but modest number for a summer-starting Marvel title.

Disney insiders remain optimistic. The studio highlights that the film introduces a brand-new lineup of antiheroes — characters who, while familiar to die-hard MCU fans, haven’t previously headlined on the big screen as a team. As a result, Thunderbolts lacks the built-in momentum of past ensemble launches like Guardians of the Galaxy. Advance ticket sales have been slower than usual, but early reactions from preview screenings and CinemaCon presentations have been positive, with exhibitors calling it a “fun and gritty” departure from the typical Marvel formula.

Adding to the buzz, Marvel recently confirmed that many of the Thunderbolts characters will return in the highly anticipated Avengers: Doomsday, helping to build long-term stakes and interest.

The cast includes Florence Pugh (Yelena Belova), Sebastian Stan (Bucky Barnes), David Harbour (Red Guardian), Wyatt Russell (John Walker), Olga Kurylenko (Taskmaster), Hannah John-Kamen (Ghost), and Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Valentina Allegra de Fontaine). The plot centers around this rag-tag team of outcasts who are lured into a death trap by Fontaine and must confront the demons of their past in order to survive — or possibly find redemption.

Marvel is banking on the film’s distinct tone to set it apart. Directed by Jake Schreier, best known for his work on Netflix’s Beef and the indie hit Robot & Frank, Thunderbolts leans into emotional depth, character-driven storytelling, and a darker, almost A24-style aesthetic.

“It ended up becoming this badass indie, A24-feeling assassin movie with Marvel superheroes,” Pugh said in a recent interview with Empire. Schreier added, “There’s an emotional darkness we brought to this that is resonant, but doesn’t come at the expense of comedy.”

While some view the projected opening as underwhelming by traditional MCU standards, industry observers caution against reading too much into tracking figures, which have become increasingly unpredictable. Previous MCU sleeper hits like Shang-Chi defied early estimates by a wide margin — and Disney hopes lightning might strike again.

If all goes well, Thunderbolts could prove that even the most unlikely team can lead a box office charge — especially with a little grit, heart, and a lot of firepower.

Thunderbolts opens May 2, 2025, exclusively in theaters.