November 1, 2024: India has just experienced its hottest October on record, surpassing the previous high set in 1951, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Central India, encompassing regions like Madhya Pradesh, parts of Maharashtra, and Chhattisgarh, led the nation in mean temperature, recording its warmest October ever. Meanwhile, northwest India, including the Delhi-NCR region, marked its second warmest October since records began in 1901.
Also Read: Why is It Still So Hot In Delhi? Understanding October Heat
The IMD warns that this “above-normal” temperature phase may extend into the first two weeks of November, with a slight dip anticipated in the second week, followed by a gradual cooling trend through the month. The unusually warm October is attributed to four low-pressure systems, a delayed withdrawal of the monsoon, and an absence of typical western disturbances.
While predicting the upcoming winter remains uncertain, the potential formation of La Niña conditions in November-December could bring a harsher winter from December to February. La Niña, a phenomenon associated with cooling ocean surface temperatures in the Pacific, typically correlates with colder winter temperatures in north and northwest India.
“We can’t forecast anything conclusive at this stage,” said IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, acknowledging that research is ongoing to understand why La Niña has yet to develop despite favorable conditions. Mohapatra also noted that recent global climate model forecasts suggest a higher probability of La Niña conditions forming later this year, which could impact the severity of the winter.
Looking ahead to November, IMD predicts “above-normal” daytime temperatures over northeast, east-central, and parts of northwest and Peninsular India. In contrast, west-central and some adjacent areas in northwest and north Peninsular India may experience “normal to below-normal” maximum temperatures.
For nighttime temperatures, most regions of the country, except parts of northwest India, are expected to experience warmer-than-usual nights throughout November. This sustained heat, particularly in October, serves as a stark reminder of the complex interplay between global climate factors and their impact on seasonal weather patterns in India.
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