As several regions brace for rainfall on April 2, concerns are growing over the longer-term outlook for India’s monsoon season. G.P. Sharma, President – Meteorology and Climate Change at Skymet Weather, has cautioned that emerging El Niño conditions could adversely affect rainfall this year—particularly in the latter half of the monsoon.
Sharma noted that historically, El Niño years have been unfavourable for India, with nearly 75% of such years recording below-normal rainfall and about 60% linked to drought-like conditions. He explained that El Niño is expected to begin strengthening after June, gradually influencing the monsoon as the season progresses.
According to him, the early phase of the monsoon may remain relatively stable, but rainfall could turn erratic in the later months—especially August and September. “Overall, rainfall is unlikely to be above normal and could even fall below average,” he said.
He also highlighted unusual weather patterns observed this year. March, typically a transition period marking the onset of pre-monsoon heat, behaved atypically. While overall temperatures were higher than normal, the final 10 days saw unexpected rainfall and hailstorms in regions not usually prone to such events. Parts of Gujarat, including Rajkot, and cities like Pune experienced these anomalies.
Sharma described these developments as unusual, pointing out that temperatures touching 40°C this early in the season are also not typical.
On the heat outlook, he said April is unlikely to witness severe heatwave conditions due to ongoing rainfall activity, which should help moderate temperatures across central and northern India. However, he warned that heatwaves are expected to intensify in May and June as El Niño conditions strengthen.
At present, India is transitioning out of a La Niña phase into neutral conditions, before likely entering El Niño around July. The phenomenon is expected to peak in August, potentially affecting the monsoon’s performance.
Meanwhile, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued warnings of heavy rainfall across several states, including Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Telangana. The wet spell is linked to an active Western Disturbance affecting northwest India through April 5, with peak intensity expected on April 3 and 4.
In Maharashtra, authorities have forecast isolated light to moderate rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds ranging between 30–50 kmph, with gusts potentially reaching 60 kmph across Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada from April 1 to April 4.
Stronger thundersqualls, with wind speeds of 50–60 kmph and gusts up to 70 kmph, are likely in parts of Madhya Maharashtra on April 2 and 3, with similar conditions expected in Marathwada. The IMD has also warned of isolated hailstorms in these regions during the same period.
Temperatures in the state are expected to rise slightly by 2–3°C initially before dropping by 2–4°C in the coming days due to sustained rainfall activity.