Seasonal rainfall projected at 105% of long-period average; neutral El Niño and IOD conditions signal promising outlook for agriculture
New Delhi, April 16: India is poised to receive above-normal monsoon rainfall in 2025, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasting seasonal rainfall at 105% of the long-period average (LPA). The encouraging projection, announced on Tuesday, comes with a model error margin of ±5% and signals a much-needed boost for India’s agriculture-dependent economy.
The southwest monsoon, which typically arrives in Kerala around June 1 and retreats by mid-September, plays a crucial role in sustaining crops across the country. The IMD categorizes rainfall between 96% and 104% of the LPA (currently pegged at 87 cm) as “normal” — anything above is classified as “above normal.”
Officials highlighted that major climate influencers — including El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) — are currently in a neutral phase, a condition considered highly favourable for a robust monsoon.
“All key atmospheric and oceanic parameters are aligned for a healthy southwest monsoon,” said an official from the Ministry of Earth Sciences.
The neutral El Niño suggests no significant warming of the central Pacific, while neutral IOD conditions avoid negative pressure on Indian rainfall. Additionally, reduced snow cover across the Eurasian and Himalayan regions has been cited as a further positive indicator — historically linked with stronger monsoon performance.
This optimistic forecast brings relief to farmers and policymakers, especially after fluctuating rainfall patterns in recent years. If the IMD’s projection holds true, it could significantly support crop yields, improve groundwater levels, and stabilize food inflation, thereby providing broader economic benefits.