India Set to Become Third-Largest Driver of Global Trade Growth: DHL Trade Atlas 2025

With a forecasted 6% share in global trade expansion over the next five years, India joins China and the US as a top contributor to international trade growth.

New Delhi, March 24: India is poised to play a pivotal role in global trade growth over the next five years, emerging as the third-largest contributor to global trade expansion, according to the DHL Trade Atlas 2025 report. The report projects India to account for 6% of the additional global trade from now until 2030—behind only China (12%) and the United States (10%).

India is part of a powerful cohort of emerging economies—including Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines—that are forecast to rank among the top 30 nations globally in terms of both the speed and scale of trade growth.

“India also stands out as the country with the third largest absolute amount of forecast trade growth,” the report noted.

India’s trade performance has been gaining momentum in recent years. In 2024, the country ranked as the 13th largest trading nation, but its compound annual trade growth rate of 5.2% (2019–2024) significantly outpaced the global average of 2%.

The DHL report attributes this performance to India’s strong macroeconomic fundamentals, deepening engagement in global trade networks, and policy measures aimed at strengthening its manufacturing and export sectors.

Another striking trend highlighted in the report is the rise of trade among nations not closely aligned with the US or China. The share of such “neutral” trade has grown from 42% in 2016 to 47% in 2024, while trade involving non-aligned countries such as India, UAE, Vietnam, Brazil, and Mexico continues to expand.

The share of global trade involving neutral nations has also risen from 15.4% in 2016 to 17.5% in 2024, indicating a shift toward a multipolar and diversified trade environment—a trend in which India plays a central role.

With its expanding footprint in global markets and a robust economic base, India is well-positioned to solidify its status as one of the fastest-growing trading powers in the world over the coming decade.