Will SIR Shape the Outcome in Bihar? 52 Battleground Seats Could Decide

Significant Omissions, Particularly in Muslim-Dominated Seemanchal, Raise Concerns Over Poll Outcome in Close Contests

The commencement of the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of voters’ lists across India has created an immediate flashpoint in Bihar, where Assembly elections are due this month. The key question is the impact of the deletion of approximately 47 lakh voters, which translates to roughly 15,000 to 20,000 omissions per constituency across the state’s 243 seats.

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High Stakes in a Closely Contested Battle

The deletions assume critical significance given the narrow victory margins in the 2020 Bihar elections. That year, 52 constituencies were decided by fewer than 5,000 votes, and in 10 seats, the margin was a staggering 500 votes or less. With the overall electorate totaling 7.4 crore and an average deletion rate of 5.9%, the revised list is set to leave its mark.

The electoral landscape is further complicated by the debut of Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party, which is expected to make the field more congested, ensuring that every vote counts. In the 2020 polls, the RJD and BJP finished closely, with the NDA securing victory with 125 seats against the Mahagathbandhan’s 110.

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Allegations of Bias in Seemanchal Region

The revision exercise shows a geographical disparity: the Magadh region, including Patna, saw the highest voter addition rate, while the Muslim-dominated Seemanchal region recorded the highest deletion rate at 7.7%.

This region—comprising Kishanganj, Purnea, Katihar, and Araria, with an average Muslim population of 48% who traditionally back the Mahagathbandhan—has witnessed strong allegations of disenfranchisement and bias. Muslims in the area allege inaccurate deletions of names of migrant workers and a politically motivated process aimed at excluding non-BJP voters.

Senior journalist Pranav Choudhary estimates that these deletions could cost the RJD and Congress-led Grand Alliance roughly 8-12 seats in Seemanchal’s 24 constituencies, a threat compounded by the possible splitting of the Muslim vote by AIMIM and Jan Suraaj.

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EC Defends Accuracy, Opposition Urged to Focus on Booth Management

The Election Commission (EC) defended the SIR exercise in the Supreme Court as “accurate,” dismissing allegations of disproportionate exclusion of Muslims as “communal.”

However, social scientist DM Diwakar noted, “It is certain that SIR’s voter list revision will leave its mark on the Bihar elections,” warning that the political battle risks becoming one-sided given perceived compromises at the EC level. He suggested that the only counter-strategy for the Opposition is to ensure “sound booth management” on polling day.

Meanwhile, observers note that the opposition’s anti-SIR campaign, which included Rahul Gandhi’s ‘Voter Adhikar Yatra’ in August, has failed to sustain a visible impact at the rural grassroots level. Former CEC N. Gopalaswami, however, affirmed the EC’s competence, pointing to the massive logistical scale of the exercise, which involved over 90,000 polling booths and personnel, arguing there was sufficient time for accurate revision.

The outcome of the Bihar polls, with counting scheduled for November 14, will serve as a crucial insight into the national roadmap as the SIR project rolls out to 12 other states and Union territories.