Can Jenson Brooksby Pull Off Another Wimbledon Upset?

July 2, 2025: Wimbledon’s second round is set for an electric encounter as Brazil’s rising star Joao Fonseca takes on American comeback kid Jenson Brooksby. Both players are riding the wave of recent successes—each owning a main-draw title this season—and their contrasting styles promise a riveting match on the grass courts of SW19.

Fonseca cruised past wildcard Jacob Fearnley in straight sets, sealing the match with a third-set tiebreak. His 2024 season has been a rollercoaster: three title wins (including ATP Buenos Aires and Challenger trophies in Canberra and Phoenix), yet several early exits elsewhere.

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Statistically, Fonseca has dominated in key areas, hitting 132 aces, winning 72% of his first-serve points, and converting 33% of 183 break point chances. Despite inconsistencies, his explosive game gives him a high ceiling.

Brooksby, however, is the dark horse. The American shocked 31st seed Tallon Griekspoor in straight sets and continues to rebuild after a 13-month doping ban and wrist injury. He’s made a solid comeback—winning his first ATP title in Houston, reaching the second round at Roland Garros, and finishing runner-up to Taylor Fritz in Eastbourne.

Brooksby’s stats show steady growth: 42 aces, a 67% win rate on first serve, and a 42% break point conversion rate. His sharp returns and court coverage make him a tricky opponent.

Despite Brooksby’s resurgence, Fonseca is favored at 21/50, with bookmakers citing his title-winning form and overall potential. Brooksby trails at 37/20, making him a value bet for risk-takers banking on his momentum.

Other Betting Odds (via BetMGM):

• Total Games Over 38.5: 10/11
• Total Games Under 38.5: 17/20
• Fonseca Over 18.5 Games: 4/6
• Brooksby Over 18.5 Games: 17/20
• Total Sets Over 3.5: 13/25
• Total Sets Under 3.5: 6/4

This grass-court battle is finely poised. Fonseca may be the safer pick, but Brooksby is out to prove he’s back—and better than ever.