October 12, 2024: The race to secure a spot in the ICC Women’s T20 World Cup 2024 semi-finals from Group A is in a thrilling phase, with India, Australia, New Zealand, and Pakistan still in contention, while Sri Lanka has been eliminated.
India’s Path to the Semi-Finals:
If India Wins Against Australia:
A win over Australia on Sunday will be India’s most straightforward route to the semi-finals. They will finish the group stage with six points.
In this case, India’s qualification will be guaranteed if New Zealand loses at least one of their remaining two matches (against Pakistan and Sri Lanka).
If New Zealand wins both of their matches, there could still be a three-way tie on six points between India, Australia, and New Zealand, making Net Run Rate (NRR) crucial in determining which teams advance.
If India Loses to Australia:
Even with a loss to Australia, India can still qualify, depending on how they manage their Net Run Rate (NRR).
India’s current NRR is +0.57 after a dominant win over Sri Lanka, which gives them an edge. If they lose narrowly to Australia, they could still advance as long as the damage to their NRR is minimal.
In this case, India’s fate could depend on how New Zealand performs in their final two matches. If New Zealand loses one of those games, India could qualify with four points.
If New Zealand wins both matches and India loses, a three-way tie on six points will occur, and NRR will be decisive. With Australia currently having a very strong NRR of +2.78, India will need to avoid a heavy loss to keep their NRR above New Zealand’s.
Net Run Rate Scenarios:
New Zealand’s NRR is currently -0.05, but they have two games left (against Pakistan and Sri Lanka), which gives them a chance to improve it.
For New Zealand to surpass India’s NRR, they need to win their last two matches with a combined margin of 38 runs more than India’s margin of defeat (if India loses to Australia).
Pakistan, with an NRR of -0.48, can only reach a maximum of four points if they beat New Zealand. However, their chances of making the semi-finals are slim and largely dependent on both New Zealand losing heavily and a significant NRR swing.
India vs Australia: A win here would almost guarantee India’s semi-final spot.
New Zealand’s last two matches: New Zealand’s performance against Pakistan and Sri Lanka is crucial, as two strong wins could push them ahead of India in a three-way tie.
Pakistan: Pakistan has a very slim chance and must rely on favorable results and a massive improvement in NRR to stand any chance of qualifying.
India has a good chance of qualifying, especially with a win against Australia. Even if they lose, a narrow defeat would keep them in contention, especially if New Zealand fails to win both of their remaining matches. NRR will be a key factor, but India’s recent big win over Sri Lanka has given them some breathing room in this intense race.
