WASHINGTON / TEHRAN — Despite more than a month of intensive aerial bombardment by U.S. and Israeli forces, recent U.S. intelligence assessments suggest that Iran’s military capabilities remain far from neutralized. While the ongoing campaign, dubbed Operation Epic Fury, has degraded key infrastructure, Tehran continues to possess a substantial arsenal capable of carrying out sustained strikes across the region.
- The Intelligence: Tunnels and Mobile Launchers
A report by the media, citing sources familiar with the latest intelligence, indicates that Iran’s reliance on “underground cities” and mobile launch platforms has successfully shielded much of its firepower.
Launchers Intact: Roughly half of Iran’s ballistic missile launchers remain operational.
Drone Threat: Thousands of one-way attack drones are still in the inventory, allowing Iran to maintain a persistent threat to U.S. bases and regional allies.
Underground Assets: Many systems have been moved into vast tunnel networks and caves, making them nearly impossible to destroy through conventional airstrikes. This complicates damage assessments, as some systems may be merely “inaccessible” rather than destroyed.
- The Discrepancy: Intelligence vs. The White House
The findings present a stark contrast to the rhetoric coming from the White House.
The Trump Claim: In a Wednesday prime-time address, President Donald Trump stated that Iran’s military had been “decimated” and its core strategic threat “nearly eliminated.”
The Reality Check: U.S. officials can currently confirm with certainty only that about one-third of Iran’s total missile arsenal has been destroyed.
Strategic Asymmetry: Analysts suggest that while the U.S. has achieved air superiority, Iran’s strategy of concealment and mobile warfare has prevented a total military collapse.
- Pentagon: “Shattered Morale” vs. Continued Strikes
U.S. War Secretary Pete Hegseth maintained that the campaign is achieving its goals, noting that missile and drone launches from Iran have dropped to their lowest levels since the war began on February 28.
Strike Frequency: The U.S. reported over 200 strikes in a single night recently, targeting new launch sites and troop formations in real-time.
Ongoing Attacks: Despite the pressure, Iran continues to fire missiles at Israel and Gulf Arab states. On Thursday, Yemen’s Houthi rebels—allied with Tehran—claimed a fourth ballistic missile attack on Tel Aviv, underscoring the resilience of the regional proxy network.
Battlefield Status: US Intelligence vs. Political Claims (April 2026)
| Metric | Political Claim (White House) | Intelligence Estimate (CIA/CENTCOM) |
| Missile Arsenal | “Decimated / Crippled” | ~33% Confirmed Destroyed |
| Launch Capacity | “Dramatically Curtailed” | ~50% of Launchers Intact |
| Drone Fleet | “Nearly Eliminated” | Thousands Still Operational |
| Strategic Goal | “Core Objectives Complete” | High Risk to Strait of Hormuz Remains |
The “Stone Age” Threat
The intelligence leak comes at a time of extreme tension. On April 2, Trump announced the destruction of the B1 bridge in Karaj (Iran’s tallest bridge) and warned that the U.S. would hit Iran “very hard” in the next 2-3 weeks unless a deal is reached, threatening to bomb the country back to the “Stone Age.”