Monsoon Likely To Remain ‘Below Normal’ This Year Amid El Nino Risk, Predicts IMD

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday issued a cautionary first long-range forecast, predicting that India is likely to witness a “below-normal” southwest monsoon in 2026. The department estimates rainfall to be approximately 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA), a development that has triggered immediate concerns for the country’s agricultural sector and water management.

The El Niño Factor

The primary driver behind this deficit is the projected emergence of El Niño—a climate pattern associated with warmer ocean temperatures that often leads to suppressed rainfall and drought-like conditions in India. While the country is currently experiencing weak La Niña conditions, forecasters expect a transition to “neutral” before El Niño likely peaks after July.

M. Ravichandran, Secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, noted that while the early months of June and July might not see a drastic impact, the expected shortfall in the second half of the season is particularly worrying for Kharif crop cultivation.

Economic Implications

With over 75% of India’s annual precipitation occurring between June and September, the monsoon remains the lifeblood of the rural economy. A 92% LPA forecast (with a +/-5% margin of error) falls squarely into the “below-normal” category, potentially threatening crop yields, inflating food prices, and lowering reservoir levels.

The IMD is scheduled to release a more detailed second-stage forecast in May, which will include specific regional and sub-divisional breakdowns. The official onset date for the monsoon will also be predicted around mid-May.