Moon at Risk: Asteroid 2024 YR4 Could Collide With Earth’s Satellite in 2032

Impact could release energy equivalent to 340 Hiroshima bombs, say scientists

February 15, 2025: Asteroid 2024 YR4 Poses Threat to Moon and Earth, Could Cause Massive Explosion

While scientists have doubled the chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth, new calculations indicate a small but concerning probability that it could instead hit the Moon.

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🔭 David Rankin, an operations engineer at the University of Arizona’s Catalina Sky Survey, revealed in a social media post that the asteroid has a 0.3% chance of slamming into the Moon.

“There is the possibility this would eject some material back out that could hit the Earth, but I highly doubt it would cause any major threat,” said Rankin.

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🚀 If the asteroid does hit the Moon, it could release energy equivalent to 340 Hiroshima bombs, creating a massive 2-kilometer-wide crater on the lunar surface.

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What Is Asteroid 2024 YR4?

🔹 First detected in December 2024 by the NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-Impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Chile.
🔹 Originally estimated to have a 1.3% chance of hitting Earth, which doubled to 2.3% within a week.
🔹 Size: Estimated to be between 130 to 300 feet in diameter—not enough to cause a global catastrophe but big enough to obliterate a city.
🔹 Classification: Rated 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale (which ranges from 0-10), indicating a potentially hazardous asteroid.

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Possible Impact Zones on Earth

🌍 If asteroid 2024 YR4 does collide with Earth, scientists have predicted that possible impact sites could include:

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✔️ Eastern Pacific Ocean
✔️ Northern South America
✔️ The Atlantic Ocean
✔️ Africa
✔️ The Arabian Sea
✔️ South Asia

💡 NASA scientists caution that risk calculations may change as new data is gathered. Several asteroids in the past have been flagged as high-risk before eventually being downgraded as more observations were collected.

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How Dangerous Is an Impact With the Moon?

If 2024 YR4 collides with the Moon instead of Earth, the event would:

🌑 Create a massive explosion visible from Earth.
🌑 Eject lunar debris into space, with some fragments possibly reaching Earth.
🌑 Form a crater over 2 kilometers wide, altering the Moon’s surface.

While this wouldn’t pose an immediate danger to Earth, it would be one of the most significant asteroid collisions with the Moon in modern history.

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China Takes Action With Planetary Defense System

🌍🚀 China isn’t taking any chances. The country has already initiated a planetary defense force to prepare for a possible asteroid impact scenario.

With global interest in asteroid monitoring and defense on the rise, other nations may follow suit. NASA, ESA, and SpaceX have also been working on asteroid deflection techniques, including the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission, which successfully altered an asteroid’s trajectory in 2022.

🔭 As scientists continue monitoring asteroid 2024 YR4, the world awaits further updates on whether Earth—or the Moon—remains in its crosshairs.

Tags: AsteroidImpact, NASA, MoonCollision, SpaceThreat, PlanetaryDefense,