Pakistan’s Risky Gamble With China Backfires Amid Gwadar Port Talks

Islamabad’s audacious demands, including a second-strike nuclear capability, lead to a diplomatic rift with its “all-weather ally” Beijing.

December 20, 2024: Islamabad: Nations, like individuals, often exhibit behavioural patterns that define their identity and reputation. Pakistan is no exception, consistently finding itself embroiled in controversies that strain relationships with allies and antagonise adversaries. The latest episode features Pakistan’s miscalculated attempt to strong-arm China—its so-called “all-weather ally”—leading to a diplomatic setback.

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Pakistan’s Misstep With China

During a high-level meeting involving senior government and military officials from both nations, Pakistan attempted to negotiate terms regarding the strategic Gwadar Port in Balochistan, a pivotal part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Islamabad reportedly suggested it might allow China to establish a military base in Gwadar but only if Beijing provided it with a second-strike nuclear capability—an extreme demand aimed at matching India’s military might.

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This audacious proposition, bordering on coercion, was promptly rejected by Beijing. Talks have since been indefinitely suspended, leaving Pakistan in a precarious position given its heavy reliance on Chinese financial and military support.

China’s Strategic Calculations

Pakistan’s demand not only strains its relationship with Beijing but also puts China in a difficult position globally. Providing Pakistan with advanced nuclear capabilities would violate the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), to which China is a signatory. Such an action could invite severe international sanctions and isolation for Beijing, making Pakistan’s request untenable.

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Adding to the strain, Islamabad had earlier refused a Chinese naval visit to Gwadar during the joint naval Sea Guardians III exercise, citing U.S. pressure. This move further angered Beijing, which views Gwadar as a cornerstone of its regional and global strategic ambitions.

Internal Turmoil in Pakistan

Pakistan’s fragile domestic situation exacerbates the diplomatic fallout. Facing economic despair, civil unrest, and accusations of election rigging, the country’s military and civilian leadership are ill-equipped to handle a breakdown in relations with China. Islamabad’s dependence on Chinese loans and military aid makes any disruption in ties particularly damaging.

Reports from Drop Site News indicate that Islamabad had earlier privately assured Beijing it could transform Gwadar into a permanent military base. However, Pakistan’s subsequent demands—including military and economic guarantees—have led to frustration in Beijing, which sees Islamabad’s actions as inconsistent and opportunistic.

The Stakes of Second-Strike Capability

A second-strike nuclear capability is the ultimate deterrent, allowing a nation to retaliate with nuclear weapons even after suffering a devastating attack. This requires a nuclear triad—land, air, and submarine-based launch systems. Islamabad’s demand for such advanced capabilities not only reflects its obsession with countering India but also highlights its unrealistic expectations from China.

By asking Beijing to risk global sanctions and violate the NPT, Pakistan has jeopardized its most important bilateral relationship during a time of unprecedented domestic and international challenges.

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Tags:
Pakistan-China relations, Gwadar Port dispute, second-strike nuclear capability, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, NPT violations, Pakistan political instability, Beijing-Islamabad tensions, military diplomacy, South Asia geopolitics, nuclear deterrence strategy,