July 18, 2025: Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) is expected to report a substantial increase in its profit after tax (PAT) for the first quarter of FY26, driven largely by a one-off gain from the sale of its stake in Asian Paints. Leading brokerages Kotak Equities and Yes Securities have issued sharply optimistic forecasts ahead of RIL’s Q1 earnings announcement.
According to Kotak Institutional Equities, RIL’s PAT could rise to ₹28,542 crore, marking a massive 88.5% year-on-year (YoY) and 47.1% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) surge. The brokerage attributes this spike primarily to the non-recurring gains from the strategic divestment in Asian Paints, alongside solid performance in the energy and consumer segments.
Meanwhile, Yes Securities projects PAT at ₹23,693 crore, reflecting a 36% YoY and 5% QoQ growth. While more conservative than Kotak’s estimate, Yes Securities also acknowledges the positive impact of the Asian Paints stake sale and stable operational performance across Reliance’s telecom (Jio), retail, and oil-to-chemicals (O2C) businesses.
Key Drivers:
- Asian Paints Stake Sale: The standout factor for this quarter, contributing significantly to RIL’s bottom line.
- Stable O2C Margins: Despite global macroeconomic uncertainties, margins in refining and petrochemicals are expected to remain healthy.
- Retail and Jio Growth: Continued expansion in the retail footprint and subscriber base for Jio are likely to support earnings momentum.
What to Watch:
- Any commentary from the company on capex plans, especially in renewable energy.
- Updates on Jio Financial Services and progress on 5G monetisation.
- Management’s guidance on refining margins and retail growth for the rest of the fiscal year.
With the earnings report expected soon, market participants will be closely monitoring RIL’s actual performance against these lofty projections. A better-than-expected number could spark renewed momentum in the stock, which has seen muted volumes in recent sessions.