A deadly crash near Aqtau, Kazakhstan, may have been caused by a Russian surface-to-air missile, with investigators pointing to shrapnel damage on the plane. An ongoing inquiry seeks clarity as both military and civilian experts weigh in.
December 26, 2024: The tragic crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines plane near Aqtau, Kazakhstan, on Christmas Day has taken a new turn, with reports suggesting that the aircraft may have been “accidentally” struck by a Russian surface-to-air missile or anti-aircraft fire. The flight, en route from Baku to Grozny in Russia, had 67 people aboard, including 62 passengers and five crew members. Sadly, 38 people lost their lives, while 29 survivors included two young girls, aged 11 and 16.
Very interesting: Shrapnel marks on the fuselage of Azerbaijan Airlines plane that crashed in Kazakhstan today. pic.twitter.com/3X5PTIR66E
— Clash Report (@clashreport) December 25, 2024
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Multiple reports, including those from Euronews, AFP, and The Wall Street Journal, indicate that the damage to the plane’s fuselage and tail section aligns with the type of destruction caused by shrapnel from a missile. Images shared by military conflict site Clash Report revealed large, distinct holes in the fuselage, some as small as pinpricks, others several inches wide, which experts believe were caused by missile fragments.
New onboard video shows a woman injured in the leg (Azerbaijani source Caliber says “by shrapnel”) inside the cabin of crashed Azerbaijan Airlines plane.
— Clash Report (@clashreport) December 25, 2024
“Many questions remain, and the investigation will provide answers.” pic.twitter.com/IFtuTCTgJv
The plane was flying into an area where drone activity linked to the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict had been reported, with Grozny—a city heavily defended by anti-aircraft weaponry—being a possible target for Ukrainian drones. The plane’s flight path and the circumstances surrounding the crash raised immediate concerns.
This video shows what happened in the minutes before the plane crash in Kazakhstan. The plane repeatedly went up and down before crashing. pic.twitter.com/dQ0H1c9R0R
— BNO News Live (@BNODesk) December 25, 2024
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Russian military blogger Yury Podolyaka told AFP that the damage on the wreckage resembled that caused by an “anti-aircraft missile system,” further fueling speculation that the aircraft may have been mistakenly hit by an air-defense missile. Matt Borie, Chief Intelligence Officer at aviation risk management firm Osprey Flight Solutions, echoed this sentiment, noting that the circumstances pointed to the aircraft being struck by anti-aircraft fire.
Russian outlet Meduza also supported the theory, identifying similar damage patterns in other aircraft brought down by surface-to-air missiles. Some reports suggest that Grozny had been attacked by Ukrainian drones in the weeks prior, leading authorities to speculate that Russian air defenses may have mistakenly identified the Azerbaijan Airlines flight as another drone and engaged it with missile fire.
Survivors have provided additional details, with some of the passengers seated in the tail section hearing loud explosions moments after the plane’s emergency landing request was denied. These explosions, believed to be the plane’s oxygen tanks rupturing, added to the chaos. One video from inside the plane shows a female passenger with apparent shrapnel injuries to her leg.
As the plane turned back toward Kazakhstan, it appeared to struggle with altitude control before spiraling into a nosedive and crashing into a field about three kilometers from Aqtau airport. Initial reports from Azerbaijan Airlines suggested the crash was caused by a bird strike, but they later retracted that statement.
The aircraft’s black box has been recovered, and investigators are analyzing both the flight data and voice recorders to gather further information. Despite the ongoing investigation, the Kremlin has called for patience. “We need to await the end of the investigation,” said Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov. Kazakh officials have also emphasized that it is too early to determine the exact cause of the crash, assuring that the findings will be shared with the public once experts have completed their work.
In the aftermath of the tragedy, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev declared Thursday a national day of mourning, canceling a planned summit visit to Russia. Aliyev expressed his condolences to the victims’ families and pledged full support for the investigation into the cause of the disaster. His wife, Mehriban Aliyeva, Vice President of Azerbaijan, also expressed deep sorrow over the loss of life.
The investigation continues as authorities piece together the circumstances surrounding this devastating incident.
Tags:
Azerbaijan Airlines, Plane Crash, Russia, Kazakhstan, Surface-to-Air Missile, Military Conflict, Civilian Air Safety, Aviation Investigation, Grozny, Ukraine Conflict, Air Defense, Russian Airspace, Aircraft Damage, Black Box
