Amid Donald Trump’s threats and trade war rhetoric, Canada’s Liberal Party sees a late surge, with Prime Minister Mark Carney flipping the narrative before a high-stakes election.
April 28, 2025: Toronto —
Though not on the ballot, Donald Trump’s influence looms large as Canadians head to the polls, with his aggressive rhetoric driving an unexpected surge of nationalism that could reshape the outcome.
U.S. President Trump’s trade war threats and provocative suggestion to make Canada the “51st state” have infuriated Canadians, breathing new life into the Liberal Party’s election prospects.
“Trump is the campaign,” said former Quebec Premier Jean Charest. “The real question voters are asking is: who is best suited to stand up to Trump?”
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Foreign policy hasn’t weighed this heavily on a Canadian election since the 1988 debates over free trade with the U.S. Now, Prime Minister Mark Carney, who took office in March after Justin Trudeau’s resignation, leads in national polls — a dramatic reversal for the Liberals, once poised for a heavy defeat.
“We are facing an existential threat,” Carney warned, pointing to Trump’s moves against Canadian companies, workers, and retirees’ savings.
Until recently, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre was seen as a near-certain successor to Trudeau. However, Poilievre’s muted response to Trump’s provocations, compared to Carney’s fiery defense of Canadian sovereignty, may have shifted public opinion.
Charest criticized Trump’s impact abroad, saying, “If Trump truly cares about his allies, he must recognize the chaos he’s fueling globally.”
Poilievre, who remains ideologically aligned with Trump, urged Canadians to reject what he described as a “lost Liberal decade,” yet his message may be losing traction amid nationalist fervor.
What’s at Stake for U.S.-Canada Relations?
Both Carney and Poilievre pledged to renegotiate the trade relationship with Washington to end the uncertainty affecting businesses. However, Carney has moved swiftly to diversify Canada’s export markets and is reconsidering defense procurement ties, including a review of pending F-35 fighter jet purchases from the U.S.
Still, 80% of Canadian exports head to America, making complete diversification a herculean task.
Former Foreign Minister John Baird cautioned, “Even a 3-5% shift would be remarkable. The U.S. remains our largest customer.”
What Do The Polls Indicate?
In January, Conservatives held a commanding 47%-20% lead over Liberals, according to Nanos polling. By April 25, however, the Liberals had surged ahead by three points nationally and five points in Ontario — a key battleground with 122 seats out of 343 in Parliament.
The swing highlights how Trump’s combative stance may be rewriting the story of Canada’s election — even without his name appearing on the ballot.
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Canada elections 2025, Mark Carney, Pierre Poilievre, Donald Trump Canada, Canada US relations, Canadian nationalism, Liberal Party, Conservative Party Canada, US Canada trade war