Shift from Awami League era may reshape engagement on Teesta, security and trade
February 13, 2026: India’s long-standing political comfort with the Awami League in Dhaka faces a new test as the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) moves closer to forming the next government. While the transition does not immediately signal instability, it calls for a careful recalibration of New Delhi’s diplomatic and strategic approach. After years of close coordination on connectivity, security and regional cooperation, India now confronts a more complex political landscape shaped by shifting parliamentary equations and ideological balancing.
A key factor in this evolving dynamic is the strengthened presence of Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami in Parliament. Though its role may not directly alter policy, its ideological stance and past rhetoric toward India add layers of uncertainty. Issues such as the long-pending Teesta River water-sharing agreement, India-backed connectivity projects, cross-border energy cooperation and broader regional integration efforts could face renewed scrutiny. Security collaboration — including intelligence sharing, counterterrorism coordination and border management — may also become subject to domestic political pressures within Bangladesh.
Despite these challenges, recent public remarks by Jamaat chief Shafiqur Rahman, describing India as a “priority” neighbour and emphasising equality among citizens, indicate a nuanced political tone. For India, engagement with a BNP-led administration will likely involve balancing pragmatic cooperation with vigilance, particularly as the renewal of the Farakka Water Treaty approaches in 2026 and concerns over trade ties and the safety of Hindu minorities remain sensitive issues.